All resolved pollsResolved · 17 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
AtlanteCrowd had 38%1
Pumas UNAMWon · Crowd had 45%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Pumas UNAM won 1–2.

Atlante vs Pumas UNAM 548 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Pumas UNAM, and the crowd had it.

45%Crowd on Pumas UNAM
33%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd beat the market
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters548World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Pumas UNAM ✓45%
Atlante38%
Tie18%
OutcomePumas UNAM
Voters548
ReadCrowd
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters548
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters548
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Pumas UNAMCrowd
Mkt 33%Crowd 45%+12pp
Result: Pumas UNAM · 0.48
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 51%-4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 66%+7pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.48
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.40
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters · came true

The crowd's modal vision: Pumas UNAM taking the win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultPumas UNAM
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A sizeable cluster saw Atlante prevailing in a lively, high-scoring affair with both teams contributing to a busy scoreline.

Match resultAtlante
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tighter, more cohesive vision: Atlante grinding out a low-scoring win, keeping Pumas UNAM off the board in a compact, defensive contest.

Match resultAtlante
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
49% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 548 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
122%118 voters
Pumas UNAMCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
217%95 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.4×
311%58 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
410%55 voters
Pumas UNAMCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
59%50 voters
Pumas UNAMCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
67%39 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
77%37 voters
AtlanteGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
85%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
94%22 voters
Pumas UNAMCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
104%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (548 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.22How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3118 · 22%
2 / 3187 · 34%
1 / 3156 · 28%
0 / 387 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=548). Average 1.61 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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