All resolved pollsResolved · 24 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
PortugalWon · Crowd had 85%1
WalesCrowd had 9%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Portugal won 1–0.

Portugal vs Wales 491 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

62%Crowd on Yes
43%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario32%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters491World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Portugal ✓85%
Wales9%
Tie6%
OutcomePortugal
Voters491
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
Portugal wins 1st Half ✓72%
Tie 1st Half18%
Wales wins 1st Half10%
OutcomePortugal wins 1st Half
Voters491
ReadConsensus
3Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals63%
Under 2.5 goals ✓37%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters491
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score?
Yes62%
No ✓38%
OutcomeNo
Voters491
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: PortugalConsensus
Mkt 81%Crowd 85%+4pp
Result: Portugal · 0.03
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Portugal wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 72%+12pp
Result: Portugal wins 1st Half · 0.12
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 63%0pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.79
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 62%+19pp
Result: No · 0.77
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.03
Who leads at half-time0.12
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.79
Will both teams score0.77
Average0.43
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 32% of voters

Portugal in control from the off, goals flowing at both ends, a lively open contest with both sides finding the net.

Match resultPortugal
Who leads at half-time?Portugal wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Portugal dominant and clinical, goals coming but all in one direction, Wales shut out in a one-sided high-scoring affair.

Match resultPortugal
Who leads at half-time?Portugal wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters · came true

Portugal ahead at the break and holding firm, a tight low-scoring contest with Wales kept off the scoresheet throughout.

Match resultPortugal
Who leads at half-time?Portugal wins 1st Half
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 491 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWho leads at half-time?Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
132%155 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Portugal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
213%64 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Portugal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
312%60 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Portugal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
49%45 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Portugal wins 1st HalfCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
55%23 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
64%19 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
72%12 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
82%11 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
92%11 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Wales wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
102%8 voters
WalesGot it wrong
Wales wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
4.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (491 voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 460 · 12%
3 / 4136 · 28%
2 / 4212 · 43%
1 / 466 · 13%
0 / 417 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=491). Average 2.32 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches