All resolved pollsResolved · 9 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Seattle SeahawksWon · Crowd had 43%13
New England PatriotsCrowd's pick · 57%10
The verdict

The crowd backed New England Patriots. Seattle Seahawks won 13–10.

Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots 505 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on New England Patriots, and it went the other way.

57%Crowd on New England Patriots
38%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Against the spread, who…Crowd & market agreed
total points are scoredMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario14%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters505World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New England Patriots57%
Seattle Seahawks ✓43%
OutcomeSeattle Seahawks
Voters505
ReadMarket
2Against the spread, who covers?
New England +3.5 ✓58%
Seattle -3.542%
OutcomeNew England +3.5
Voters505
ReadConsensus
3How many total points are scored?
Over 44.553%
Under 44.5 ✓47%
OutcomeUnder 44.5
Voters505
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
New England Patriots ✓47%
Seattle Seahawks36%
Tie17%
OutcomeNew England Patriots
Voters505
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New England PatriotsMarket
Mkt 38%Crowd 57%+19pp
Result: Seattle Seahawks · 0.65
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: New England +3.5Consensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 58%+4pp
Result: New England +3.5 · 0.35
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 44.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 53%+4pp
Result: Under 44.5 · 0.56
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New England PatriotsCrowd
Mkt 36%Crowd 47%+11pp
Result: New England Patriots · 0.44
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.65
Against the spread, who covers0.35
How many total points are scored0.56
Who leads at half-time0.44
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 14% of voters

A disciplined Patriots performance: New England controls the half, keeps the game tight and low-scoring, and grinds out a win while covering the spread.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Against the spread, who covers?New England +3.5
How many total points are scored?Under 44.5
Who leads at half-time?New England Patriots
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A more open Patriots victory: New England leads at the break and wins outright, but both offences fire and the points total climbs above the line.

Who wins?New England Patriots
Against the spread, who covers?New England +3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?New England Patriots
Scenario 3 · 9% of voters

A dominant Seahawks showing: Seattle leads from the front, pulls clear to cover a sizeable spread, and the game delivers a high-scoring afternoon.

Who wins?Seattle Seahawks
Against the spread, who covers?Seattle -3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 44.5
Who leads at half-time?Seattle Seahawks
37% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 505 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
114%71 voters
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
New England +3.5Called it!
Under 44.5Called it!
New England PatriotsCalled it!
1.9×
214%69 voters
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
New England +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
New England PatriotsCalled it!
1.7×
39%45 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
Seattle -3.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
2.6×
49%44 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
Seattle -3.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
2.9×
56%30 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
New England +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
1.2×
65%25 voters
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
Seattle -3.5Got it wrong
Over 44.5Got it wrong
New England PatriotsCalled it!
0.8×
74%22 voters
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
New England +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
Seattle SeahawksGot it wrong
0.7×
84%18 voters
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
Seattle -3.5Got it wrong
Under 44.5Called it!
New England PatriotsCalled it!
0.7×
93%17 voters
New England PatriotsGot it wrong
New England +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.1×
103%16 voters
Seattle SeahawksCalled it!
New England +3.5Called it!
Over 44.5Got it wrong
New England PatriotsCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (505 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.9×The most-backed combination drew 1.9× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-7The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-7; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 412 · 2%
3 / 4124 · 25%
2 / 4217 · 43%
1 / 4131 · 26%
0 / 421 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=505). Average 1.95 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.