All resolved pollsResolved · 1 AUG 2026Upset
Racing Club1
TigreWon · Crowd had 21%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Racing Avellaneda. Tigre won 1–3.

Racing Avellaneda vs Tigre 752 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Racing Avellaneda, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Racing Avellaneda
47%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario22%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters752World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Racing Avellaneda70%
Tigre ✓21%
Tie9%
OutcomeTigre
Voters752
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No53%
Yes ✓47%
OutcomeYes
Voters752
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes ✓62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters752
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Racing AvellanedaUpset
Mkt 47%Crowd 70%+23pp
Result: Tigre · 1.12
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoUpset
Mkt 65%Crowd 53%-12pp
Result: Yes · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 43%Crowd 62%+19pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match1.12
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.56
Will both teams score in regulation time0.29
Average0.66
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 22% of voters

The crowd's modal vision: Racing Avellaneda grind out a tight, controlled win with both sides finding the net but the game staying under three goals total.

Who wins this match?Racing Avellaneda
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 22% of voters

A shared vision of Racing Avellaneda winning an open, free-scoring affair where both teams contribute goals in a game that tips past three.

Who wins this match?Racing Avellaneda
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

A compact Racing Avellaneda victory, low on goals and with only one side scoring, the crowd's picture of a shut-out home win.

Who wins this match?Racing Avellaneda
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
59% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 752 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
122%167 voters
Racing AvellanedaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
222%167 voters
Racing AvellanedaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
315%113 voters
Racing AvellanedaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
410%76 voters
Racing AvellanedaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
58%59 voters
TigreCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
65%39 voters
TigreCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
74%32 voters
TigreCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
84%28 voters
TigreCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
94%27 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
102%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (752 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.06How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 359 · 8%
2 / 3250 · 33%
1 / 3303 · 40%
0 / 3140 · 19%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=752). Average 1.3 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches