The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
England2
DR Congo1
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
66%Crowd
38%Market
+28Divergence

+28 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran 28 points above market on both teams scoring, and the outcome backed that lean.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap38%66% Yes+28
2Who leads at half-time?56%64% England wins 1st Half+8
3Who wins this match?87%83% England advances-4
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?52%55% Yes+3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedEngland 2–1 Congo DR — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England advances83%
Congo DR advances17%
OutcomeEngland advances
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
England wins 1st Half64%
Congo DR wins 1st Half18%
Tie 1st Half18%
OutcomeCongo DR wins 1st Half
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: England advancesConsensus
Mkt 87%Crowd 83%-4pp
Result: England advances · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 55%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: England wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 64%+8pp
Result: Congo DR wins 1st Half · 1.11
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 38%Crowd 66%+28pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.06
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.40
Who leads at half-time1.11
Will both teams score in regulation time0.23
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

England in control from the off, leading at the break in a free-scoring game where both sides find the net and goals flow past three.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

England dominant enough to lead at half-time and win the tie, but in a tighter, more contained game that stays under three goals total.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A high-scoring game with England winning through, but Congo DR matching them for stretches and keeping it goalless or level at the break.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
126%326 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
215%186 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
311%133 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
48%105 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
54%54 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Congo DR wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
64%47 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
74%47 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
83%40 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Congo DR wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
93%39 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
103%36 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Congo DR wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 454 · 4%
3 / 4448 · 36%
2 / 4505 · 40%
1 / 4228 · 18%
0 / 422 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.23 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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