All resolved pollsResolved · 1 JUL 2026Crowd & market agreed
England2
DR Congo1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. England won 2–1.

England vs DR Congo 1.3k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

66%Crowd on Yes
38%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeSurprise
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England advances83%
Congo DR advances17%
OutcomeEngland advances
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes55%
No45%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
3Who leads at half-time?
England wins 1st Half64%
Congo DR wins 1st Half18%
Tie 1st Half18%
OutcomeCongo DR wins 1st Half
Voters1.3k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: England advancesConsensus
Mkt 87%Crowd 83%-4pp
Result: England advances · 0.06
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 55%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.40
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: England wins 1st HalfUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 64%+8pp
Result: Congo DR wins 1st Half · 1.11
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 38%Crowd 66%+28pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.06
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.40
Who leads at half-time1.11
Will both teams score in regulation time0.23
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

England in control from the off, leading at the break in a free-scoring game where both sides find the net and goals flow past three.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

England dominant enough to lead at half-time and win the tie, but in a tighter, more contained game that stays under three goals total.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A high-scoring game with England winning through, but Congo DR matching them for stretches and keeping it goalless or level at the break.

Who wins this match?England advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
51% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
126%326 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
215%186 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
311%133 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
48%105 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
England wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
54%54 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Congo DR wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
64%47 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
74%47 voters
England advancesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
83%40 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Congo DR wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
93%39 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
103%36 voters
England advancesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Congo DR wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 454 · 4%
3 / 4448 · 36%
2 / 4505 · 40%
1 / 4228 · 18%
0 / 422 · 2%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.23 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.