All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Las Vegas RaidersWon · Crowd had 54%27
Miami DolphinsCrowd had 46%13
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 40.5. Las Vegas Raiders won 27–13.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins 553 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 9 points above the market's price on Over 40.5, and it went the other way.

58%Crowd on Over 40.5
49%Market price
+9Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
Against the spread, who…Crowd beat the market
total points are scoredMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters553World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Las Vegas Raiders ✓54%
Miami Dolphins46%
OutcomeLas Vegas Raiders
Voters553
ReadConsensus
2Against the spread, who covers?
Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 ✓51%
Miami Dolphins +3.549%
OutcomeLas Vegas Raiders -3.5
Voters553
ReadCrowd
3How many total points are scored?
Over 40.558%
Under 40.5 ✓42%
OutcomeUnder 40.5
Voters553
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Las Vegas Raiders ✓48%
Miami Dolphins37%
Tie16%
OutcomeLas Vegas Raiders
Voters553
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Las Vegas RaidersConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 54%-6pp
Result: Las Vegas Raiders · 0.42
: Deep
Against the spread, who covers: Las Vegas Raiders -3.5Crowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 51%+4pp
Result: Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 · 0.48
: Deep
How many total points are scored: Over 40.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 58%+9pp
Result: Under 40.5 · 0.67
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Las Vegas RaidersConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 48%-6pp
Result: Las Vegas Raiders · 0.43
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.42
Against the spread, who covers0.48
How many total points are scored0.67
Who leads at half-time0.43
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 16% of voters

Raiders in control from the first half, covering the spread in a high-scoring game that rewards the home side's firepower throughout.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Against the spread, who covers?Las Vegas Raiders -3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas Raiders
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Dolphins seize the half-time lead, keep it close enough to cover, and both offences combine to push the total well past the line.

Who wins?Miami Dolphins
Against the spread, who covers?Miami Dolphins +3.5
How many total points are scored?Over 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Miami Dolphins
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters · came true

Raiders dominate the half and the game, winning by a margin that covers, while defences keep the scoring contained below the total.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Against the spread, who covers?Las Vegas Raiders -3.5
How many total points are scored?Under 40.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas Raiders
42% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 553 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Against the spread, who covers?How many total points are scored?Who leads at half-time?
116%91 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Las Vegas Raiders -3.5Called it!
Over 40.5Got it wrong
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
2.1×
215%81 voters
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
Miami Dolphins +3.5Got it wrong
Over 40.5Got it wrong
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
3.0×
311%62 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Las Vegas Raiders -3.5Called it!
Under 40.5Called it!
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
2.0×
47%37 voters
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
Miami Dolphins +3.5Got it wrong
Under 40.5Called it!
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
1.9×
55%27 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Miami Dolphins +3.5Got it wrong
Over 40.5Got it wrong
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
0.7×
65%26 voters
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
Las Vegas Raiders -3.5Called it!
Over 40.5Got it wrong
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
0.9×
74%21 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Miami Dolphins +3.5Got it wrong
Under 40.5Called it!
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
0.7×
83%19 voters
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
Miami Dolphins +3.5Got it wrong
Under 40.5Called it!
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
0.8×
93%17 voters
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
Miami Dolphins +3.5Got it wrong
Over 40.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.5×
103%17 voters
Las Vegas RaidersCalled it!
Las Vegas Raiders -3.5Called it!
Under 40.5Called it!
Miami DolphinsGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (553 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.30How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.1×The most-backed combination drew 2.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 462 · 11%
3 / 4156 · 28%
2 / 4119 · 22%
1 / 4118 · 21%
0 / 498 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=553). Average 1.94 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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