All resolved pollsResolved · 9 OCT 2026Upset
Málaga1
EspanyolCrowd had 54%1
The verdict

Málaga 1–1 Espanyol

Málaga vs Espanyol 545 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Espanyol, and it went the other way.

54%Crowd on Espanyol
36%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters545World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Espanyol54%
Malaga29%
Tie ✓16%
OutcomeTie
Voters545
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters545
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters545
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: EspanyolUpset
Mkt 36%Crowd 54%+18pp
Result: Tie · 1.08
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 52%-3pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 66%+12pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.08
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

A confident, attacking vision: Espanyol take the points in an open game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultEspanyol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A tight, controlled Espanyol victory: the away side grind out the win while keeping the hosts off the scoresheet in a low-scoring affair.

Match resultEspanyol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A narrow Espanyol win in a close, cagey match where both teams contribute but the scoring stays minimal.

Match resultEspanyol
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 545 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%131 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
214%74 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
312%68 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
412%63 voters
MalagaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
59%47 voters
MalagaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
67%40 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
76%35 voters
MalagaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
84%24 voters
EspanyolGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
94%23 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
104%20 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (545 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 340 · 7%
2 / 3146 · 27%
1 / 3321 · 59%
0 / 338 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=545). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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