The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Argentina3
Cape Verde2
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
67%Crowd
34%Market
+33Divergence

+33 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring. That divergence aligned with the result.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap34%67% Yes+33
2Who leads at half-time?62%76% Argentina wins 1st Half+14
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?59%68% Yes+9
4Who wins this match?93%90% Argentina advances-3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedArgentina 3–2 Cape Verde Islands (after extra time) — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario37%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.7kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Argentina advances90%
Cape Verde advances10%
OutcomeArgentina advances
Voters1.7k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
Yes68%
No32%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.7k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
Argentina wins 1st Half76%
Tie 1st Half15%
Cape Verde wins 1st Half9%
OutcomeArgentina wins 1st Half
Voters1.7k
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.7k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Argentina advancesConsensus
Mkt 93%Crowd 90%-3pp
Result: Argentina advances · 0.02
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: YesUpset
Mkt 59%Crowd 68%+9pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Argentina wins 1st HalfConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 76%+14pp
Result: Argentina wins 1st Half · 0.09
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 34%Crowd 67%+33pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.02
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.92
Who leads at half-time0.09
Will both teams score in regulation time0.22
Average0.31
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 37% of voters

Argentina in control from the first whistle, leading at the break in a free-flowing game where Cape Verde find the net but cannot stop the Albiceleste from advancing.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

A high-scoring affair with Argentina ultimately advancing, but Cape Verde make a contest of the first half before the goals flow and Argentina pull clear.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters · came true

Argentina dominate the opening half and both sides score, but the game stays tight enough that the final tally stays under three regulation goals as Argentina progress.

Who wins this match?Argentina advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Argentina wins 1st Half
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
68% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.7k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
137%607 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
219%310 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Argentina wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
313%213 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
46%93 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Argentina wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
54%74 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
64%60 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
72%38 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Cape Verde wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
82%36 voters
Argentina advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
91%24 voters
Cape Verde advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
9.1×
101%24 voters
Cape Verde advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Cape Verde wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
7.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.7k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4213 · 13%
3 / 4789 · 48%
2 / 4537 · 32%
1 / 4108 · 7%
0 / 410 · 1%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.7k). Average 2.66 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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