Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
Matched the result3 / 4legs, for context — not the point
VoxPop top scenarios
Four-in-four coherence — France winning a high-scoring, both-teams-score game from the front — held firm on three legs, with only the half-time lead diverging as the break ended level.
Across 4 questions, the crowd committed to a single joint belief at once — its most-backed scenario drew 41% of voters, with low cross-question correlation — how much their answers moved together, the thing a per-leg market never sees. It later resolved France 3–1 Senegal.
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters
France in control from kick-off, building a half-time lead in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals pile up past three.
Who wins?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters
France dominant and clinical, leading at the break in a high-scoring game they keep largely one-sided, shutting Senegal out while the goal tally still climbs.
Who wins?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?France
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters
France ahead at half-time in a tighter, lower-scoring contest where both teams contribute to the scoreline but the game stays compact and under three goals total.
Who wins?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
France ✓85%
Draw7%
Senegal7%
OutcomeFrance
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes ✓73%
No27%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
France75%
Draw ✓14%
Senegal11%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
PER-LEG READthe crowd's pick on each question
Who wins?
France · 85%
66%
+19
France· crowd
0.03
Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes · 73%
50%
+23
Yes· crowd
0.15
Deep
Will both teams score?
Yes · 72%
46%
+26
Yes· crowd
0.16
Deep
Who leads at half-time?
France · 75%
49%
+26
Draw· upset
1.31
Deep
Crowd's pick = the outcome the most voters backed. Δ is crowd minus market in percentage points; Brier is the crowd's own calibration (0 = perfect, lower = better); Depth flags whether the market was liquid enough to trust.
CROWD vs MARKET · PER LEGthe crowd's facts
Where the crowd's read diverged from the betting price on each leg — biggest gap +26pp on both teams score. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
Who wins: FranceCrowd
Mkt 66%Crowd 85%+19pp
: Deep — liquid enough to trust the price
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 73%+23pp
: Deep — liquid enough to trust the price
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 72%+26pp
: Deep — liquid enough to trust the price
Who leads at half-time: FranceUpset
Mkt 49%Crowd 75%+26pp
: Deep — liquid enough to trust the price
THE CROWD'S CALIBRATION · BRIER0 = perfect
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.03
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.15
Will both teams score0.16
Who leads at half-time1.31
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
THE CROWD'S MAP · TOP SCENARIOSjoint distribution (computed)
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
141%573 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
FranceGot it wrong
1.2×
213%190 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
FranceGot it wrong
1.0×
310%141 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
FranceGot it wrong
0.8×
47%99 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
FranceGot it wrong
1.5×
54%58 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
64%50 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SenegalGot it wrong
0.7×
73%36 voters
SenegalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SenegalGot it wrong
6.3×
82%29 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.9×
92%23 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
FranceGot it wrong
0.6×
101%18 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
HOW RIGHT WAS THE CROWD · ALIGNMENT
4 / 458 · 4%
3 / 4697 · 49%
2 / 4479 · 34%
1 / 4162 · 11%
0 / 416 · 1%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.44 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. Our signals are not to be considered financial advice.
