All resolved pollsResolved · 16 JUN 2026Crowd & market agreed
FranceWon · Crowd had 85%3
SenegalCrowd had 7%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. France won 3–1.

France vs. Senegal 1.4k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 26 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

72%Crowd on Yes
46%Market price
+26Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.4kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
France ✓85%
Draw7%
Senegal7%
OutcomeFrance
Voters1.4k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
Yes ✓73%
No27%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓72%
No28%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.4k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
France75%
Draw ✓14%
Senegal11%
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.4k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: FranceConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 85%+19pp
Result: France · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: YesCrowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 73%+23pp
Result: Yes · 0.15
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 72%+26pp
Result: Yes · 0.16
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: FranceUpset
Mkt 49%Crowd 75%+26pp
Result: Draw · 1.31
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.03
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.15
Will both teams score0.16
Who leads at half-time1.31
Average0.41
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

A dominant France performance: goals flowing at both ends, France already ahead at the break, and the final whistle confirming a comfortable French victory in a high-scoring

Who wins?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

France in control throughout: a high-scoring match but with France keeping a clean sheet, leading at half-time and converting their chances to seal the win without reply.

Who wins?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Will both teams score?No
Who leads at half-time?France
Scenario 3 · 10% of voters

A tighter, lower-scoring contest where both sides find the net, France edges ahead before the break and holds on to claim a narrow but decisive victory.

Who wins?France
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Will both teams score?Yes
Who leads at half-time?France
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.4k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
141%573 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
FranceGot it wrong
1.2×
213%190 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
FranceGot it wrong
1.0×
310%141 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
FranceGot it wrong
0.8×
47%99 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
FranceGot it wrong
1.5×
54%58 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
64%50 voters
FranceCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SenegalGot it wrong
0.7×
73%36 voters
SenegalGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SenegalGot it wrong
6.3×
82%29 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.9×
92%23 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
FranceGot it wrong
0.6×
101%18 voters
FranceCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.4k voters · top 10 of 34 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 458 · 4%
3 / 4697 · 49%
2 / 4479 · 34%
1 / 4162 · 11%
0 / 416 · 1%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.4k). Average 2.44 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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