All resolved pollsResolved · 26 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Czech Republic1
CroatiaWon · Crowd had 63%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Croatia won 1–2.

Czechia vs Croatia 604 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 18 points above the market's price on Croatia, and the crowd had it.

63%Crowd on Croatia
45%Market price
+18Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters604World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Croatia ✓63%
Czechia22%
Tie15%
OutcomeCroatia
Voters604
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals53%
Over 2.5 goals ✓47%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters604
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters604
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: CroatiaConsensus
Mkt 45%Crowd 63%+18pp
Result: Croatia · 0.21
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 53%+7pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 62%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.21
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.56
Will both teams score0.29
Average0.35
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters · came true

A Croatia victory in an open, end-to-end contest, goals flowing at both ends and the match settling into a comfortable winning margin for the visitors.

Match resultCroatia
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

Croatia grinding out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Czechia off the scoresheet and shutting the game down before it could open up.

Match resultCroatia
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

A narrow Croatia win with both sides finding the net, the match decided by a single goal in a compact, scrappy affair with few clear chances.

Match resultCroatia
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
58% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 604 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%162 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
219%113 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
312%73 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
48%47 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
56%38 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
66%37 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
75%31 voters
CroatiaCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
85%29 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
95%28 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
103%19 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (604 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3162 · 27%
2 / 3167 · 28%
1 / 3218 · 36%
0 / 357 · 9%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=604). Average 1.72 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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