All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
BournemouthWon · Crowd had 47%2
SunderlandCrowd had 34%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Bournemouth won 2–0.

AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland 525 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

69%Crowd on Yes
57%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters525World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Bournemouth ✓47%
Sunderland34%
Tie19%
OutcomeBournemouth
Voters525
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters525
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No ✓31%
OutcomeNo
Voters525
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: BournemouthConsensus
Mkt 46%Crowd 47%+1pp
Result: Bournemouth · 0.43
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 48%Crowd 52%+4pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 57%Crowd 69%+12pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.43
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.95
Average0.62
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

A lively Bournemouth victory with plenty of goals and both sides finding the net, the crowd's most vivid and tightly held collective vision for the match.

Match resultBournemouth
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

An upset Sunderland win in an open, high-scoring affair with both teams on the scoresheet, a bold but coherent alternative the crowd held in meaningful numbers.

Match resultSunderland
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters · came true

A controlled, low-key Bournemouth win with few goals and Sunderland kept off the board, a tighter and more cautious vision that drew notably stronger internal agreement than

Match resultBournemouth
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
50% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 525 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
121%111 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
216%83 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
313%69 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
410%51 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
59%49 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
69%46 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
77%37 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
84%23 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
94%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
103%16 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (525 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 369 · 13%
2 / 3125 · 24%
1 / 3225 · 43%
0 / 3106 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=525). Average 1.3 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.