All resolved pollsResolved · 18 OCT 2026Upset
Leeds UnitedCrowd had 12%1
Manchester UnitedCrowd's pick · 78%1
The verdict

Leeds United 1–1 Manchester United

Leeds United vs Manchester United 550 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 45 points above the market's price on Manchester United, and it went the other way.

78%Crowd on Manchester United
33%Market price
+45Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario43%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters550World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester United78%
Leeds United12%
Tie ✓10%
OutcomeTie
Voters550
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals63%
Under 2.5 goals ✓37%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters550
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓70%
No30%
OutcomeYes
Voters550
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester UnitedUpset
Mkt 33%Crowd 78%+45pp
Result: Tie · 1.43
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 63%+5pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.79
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 70%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.18
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.43
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.79
Will both teams score0.18
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 43% of voters

A dominant, tightly clustered vision: Man Utd take the win in an open, free-scoring game where both sides find the net.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

A narrow Man Utd victory in a tight affair, with both teams grabbing a goal but the match staying low on total scoring.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Man Utd grind out a clean, controlled win, keeping Leeds off the scoresheet in a compact, low-volume contest.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
69% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 550 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
143%235 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
213%72 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
313%71 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
49%49 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
55%26 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
63%19 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
73%19 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
83%16 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.2×
93%14 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
102%12 voters
Leeds UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (550 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 319 · 3%
2 / 3117 · 21%
1 / 3353 · 64%
0 / 361 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=550). Average 1.17 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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