All resolved pollsResolved · 13 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
FlamengoWon · Crowd had 61%2
CorinthiansCrowd had 25%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Flamengo won 2–1.

Flamengo vs Corinthians 630 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

66%Crowd on Yes
43%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters630World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Flamengo ✓61%
Corinthians25%
Tie14%
OutcomeFlamengo
Voters630
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals52%
Over 2.5 goals ✓48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters630
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters630
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: FlamengoConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 61%-5pp
Result: Flamengo · 0.23
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 52%+1pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 43%Crowd 66%+23pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.23
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.54
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.34
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters · came true

A lively Flamengo victory with both sides finding the net and the game spilling past the goals line, the crowd's single most-backed combined vision.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Flamengo edging through in a tight, competitive affair, both teams scoring but the match staying contained within a low total.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Flamengo shutting the door cleanly, winning with a single-goal margin and keeping Corinthians off the scoresheet in a disciplined, low-scoring contest.

Match resultFlamengo
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 630 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%158 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
215%96 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
315%94 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
411%67 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
57%41 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
65%34 voters
FlamengoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
75%33 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
85%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
95%30 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.0×
103%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (630 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.16How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3158 · 25%
2 / 3218 · 35%
1 / 3189 · 30%
0 / 365 · 10%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=630). Average 1.74 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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