All resolved pollsResolved · 22 OCT 2026Upset
JuventusCrowd had 83%2
Rennes2
The verdict

Juventus 2–2 Stade Rennais

Juventus vs Stade Rennais 554 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on Juventus, and it went the other way.

83%Crowd on Juventus
62%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario40%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters554World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Juventus83%
Stade Rennais10%
Tie ✓6%
OutcomeTie
Voters554
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓61%
Under 2.5 goals39%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters554
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓62%
No38%
OutcomeYes
Voters554
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: JuventusUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 83%+21pp
Result: Tie · 1.58
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 57%Crowd 61%+4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.30
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 54%Crowd 62%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.29
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.58
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.30
Will both teams score0.29
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 40% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Juventus winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a high-scoring affair.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A tighter Juventus victory, shutting Rennais out and keeping the game low on goals, a controlled and disciplined winning performance.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Juventus winning in a game that produced goals, but with only one side scoring, a one-sided attacking display without a Rennais reply.

Match resultJuventus
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
72% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 554 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
140%224 voters
JuventusGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
220%109 voters
JuventusGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
312%67 voters
JuventusGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
411%60 voters
JuventusGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.5×
54%22 voters
Stade RennaisGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
63%16 voters
Stade RennaisGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
72%13 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.6×
82%11 voters
Stade RennaisGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
92%10 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
102%9 voters
Stade RennaisGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (554 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 39 · 2%
2 / 3263 · 47%
1 / 3164 · 30%
0 / 3118 · 21%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=554). Average 1.29 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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