All resolved pollsResolved · 19 SEPT 2026Upset
Nottingham ForestCrowd had 62%0
Coventry City1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Coventry City won 0–1.

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry 582 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

64%Crowd on Yes
54%Market price
+10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters582World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Nottingham Forest62%
Tie20%
Coventry ✓17%
OutcomeCoventry
Voters582
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters582
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes64%
No ✓36%
OutcomeNo
Voters582
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Nottingham ForestUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 62%+4pp
Result: Coventry · 1.11
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 52%+5pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 54%Crowd 64%+10pp
Result: No · 0.82
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.11
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.82
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 26% of voters

A high-scoring Forest home win, both sides finding the net in an open, attacking contest at the City Ground.

Match resultNottingham Forest
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tight, controlled Forest victory, one side kept scoreless in a low-tempo, defensively compact affair.

Match resultNottingham Forest
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A narrow Forest win with both teams contributing a goal each, the match settled by fine margins in a cagey encounter.

Match resultNottingham Forest
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 582 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
126%152 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
216%93 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
313%78 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
47%42 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
57%39 voters
CoventryCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
67%39 voters
Nottingham ForestGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
75%32 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
85%31 voters
CoventryCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
95%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
103%20 voters
CoventryCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.1×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (582 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 320 · 3%
2 / 3175 · 30%
1 / 3206 · 35%
0 / 3181 · 31%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=582). Average 1.06 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Browse all matches