VoxPop top scenarios
35% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Iran2
New Zealand2
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
42%Crowd
17%Market
+25Divergence
+25 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called New Zealand on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap17%42% New Zealand+25
2Who wins?20%44% New Zealand+24
3Will both teams score?45%64% Yes+19
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?40%51% Yes+11
UpsetIran 2–2 New Zealand — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.2k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.09
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.48
Will both teams score0.26
Who leads at half-time0.87
Average0.68
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
116%194 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
New ZealandGot it wrong
2.7×
211%137 voters
IR IranGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
IR IranGot it wrong
2.5×
37%84 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
New ZealandGot it wrong
2.1×
47%82 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
New ZealandGot it wrong
1.2×
57%81 voters
IR IranGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
IR IranGot it wrong
2.7×
66%72 voters
IR IranGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
IR IranGot it wrong
1.3×
74%48 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
6.3×
84%47 voters
New ZealandGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
New ZealandGot it wrong
1.2×
94%43 voters
IR IranGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
IR IranGot it wrong
1.4×
104%42 voters
IR IranGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
2.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.36How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.7×The most-backed combination drew 2.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-17. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.53 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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