VoxPop top scenarios
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.5k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Qatar1
Switzerland1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who wins?
56%Crowd
80%Market
-24Divergence
-24 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Switzerland on who wins.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who wins?Biggest gap80%56% Switzerland-24
2Will both teams score?38%62% Yes+24
3Who leads at half-time?58%53% Switzerland-5
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?57%53% Yes-4
UpsetQatar 1–1 Switzerland — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsSurprise
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.5kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.5k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.5k
ReadUpset
3Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeSwitzerland
Voters1.5k
ReadConsensus
4Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.5k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.17
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.56
Who leads at half-time0.34
Will both teams score0.29
Average0.59
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?Will both teams score?
115%225 voters
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.6×
211%157 voters
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
310%140 voters
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
49%136 voters
QatarGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
QatarGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
3.5×
57%101 voters
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
64%64 voters
QatarGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
QatarGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.9×
74%60 voters
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
83%42 voters
QatarGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
QatarGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.0×
93%40 voters
QatarGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
103%39 voters
DrawCalled it!
NoCalled it!
TieGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
5.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.5k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.33How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.6×The most-backed combination drew 1.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.5k). Average 1.75 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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