All resolved pollsResolved · 12 SEPT 2026Upset
LazioCrowd had 18%2
AC Milan2
The verdict

Lazio 2–2 AC Milan

Lazio vs AC Milan 646 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Milan, and it went the other way.

70%Crowd on Milan
42%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario33%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters646World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Milan70%
Lazio18%
Tie ✓12%
OutcomeTie
Voters646
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters646
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters646
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: MilanUpset
Mkt 42%Crowd 70%+28pp
Result: Tie · 1.30
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 42%Crowd 52%+10pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 67%+18pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.30
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.66
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 33% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Milan winning an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a multi-goal affair.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

A tight, controlled Milan victory. One side shut out, few goals, the win ground out rather than flowing freely.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

Milan edging it in a cagey game where both teams scored but the action stayed contained, goals scarce despite a share of the spoils going each way.

Match resultMilan
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 646 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
133%211 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
216%105 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
315%95 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
47%43 voters
LazioGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
56%41 voters
MilanGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
65%32 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
75%32 voters
LazioGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
84%29 voters
LazioGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
93%21 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%19 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (646 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 321 · 3%
2 / 3293 · 45%
1 / 3198 · 31%
0 / 3134 · 21%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=646). Average 1.31 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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