All resolved pollsResolved · 13 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Atlético Madrid2
Manchester UnitedCrowd had 52%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Manchester United. Atlético Madrid won 2–0.

Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United 564 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 23 points above the market's price on Manchester United, and it went the other way.

52%Crowd on Manchester United
29%Market price
+23Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters564World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester United52%
Atletico ✓36%
Tie11%
OutcomeAtletico
Voters564
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals56%
Under 2.5 goals ✓44%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters564
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes73%
No ✓27%
OutcomeNo
Voters564
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester UnitedMarket
Mkt 29%Crowd 52%+23pp
Result: Atletico · 0.69
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 56%-7pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.63
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 67%Crowd 73%+6pp
Result: No · 1.07
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.69
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.63
Will both teams score1.07
Average0.80
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 27% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: a United road win in an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net and goals flowing freely.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

A sizeable cluster saw Atletico taking the win in a lively, back-and-forth match where both teams contributed to a high-scoring affair.

Match resultAtletico
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tighter minority vision: United grinding out a clean, low-scoring win, shutting Atletico out and keeping the match locked and controlled.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
56% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 564 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
127%151 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
218%104 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
311%62 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
410%57 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
58%44 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
67%41 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.7×
77%38 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.9×
85%26 voters
Manchester UnitedGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
93%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
103%15 voters
AtleticoCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (564 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.20How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 341 · 7%
2 / 3129 · 23%
1 / 3228 · 40%
0 / 3166 · 29%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=564). Average 1.08 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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