All resolved pollsResolved · 17 SEPT 2026Market beat the crowd
Real SociedadCrowd's pick · 56%1
BournemouthWon · Crowd had 30%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Real Sociedad. Bournemouth won 1–2.

Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth 632 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 21 points above the market's price on Real Sociedad, and it went the other way.

56%Crowd on Real Sociedad
35%Market price
+21Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultMarket beat the crowd
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters632World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Real Sociedad56%
Bournemouth ✓30%
Tie14%
OutcomeBournemouth
Voters632
ReadMarket
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters632
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓64%
No36%
OutcomeYes
Voters632
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Real SociedadMarket
Mkt 35%Crowd 56%+21pp
Result: Bournemouth · 0.82
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 55%Crowd 51%-4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 59%Crowd 64%+5pp
Result: Yes · 0.26
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.82
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.26
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Real Sociedad winning an open, end-to-end contest where both sides found the net and goals flowed freely.

Match resultReal Sociedad
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A tighter, more defensive picture with Real Sociedad grinding out a clean or one-sided win in a low-scoring, contained affair.

Match resultReal Sociedad
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters · came true

The minority contrarian read: Bournemouth taking the win in a lively, back-and-forth match where both teams contributed to the scoring.

Match resultBournemouth
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
55% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 632 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%148 voters
Real SociedadGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
217%107 voters
Real SociedadGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
315%95 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
411%67 voters
Real SociedadGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
56%40 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
66%39 voters
BournemouthCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
76%35 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
85%30 voters
Real SociedadGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
94%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
103%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (632 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.21How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 395 · 15%
2 / 3226 · 36%
1 / 3180 · 28%
0 / 3131 · 21%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=632). Average 1.45 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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