All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Upset
GreeceCrowd had 11%0
GermanyCrowd's pick · 82%0
The verdict

Greece 0–0 Germany

Greece vs Germany 607 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 35 points above the market's price on Germany, and it went the other way.

82%Crowd on Germany
47%Market price
+35Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario40%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters607World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Germany82%
Greece11%
Tie ✓7%
OutcomeTie
Voters607
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals62%
Under 2.5 goals ✓38%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters607
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes63%
No ✓37%
OutcomeNo
Voters607
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: GermanyUpset
Mkt 47%Crowd 82%+35pp
Result: Tie · 1.55
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 62%+16pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.77
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 63%+14pp
Result: No · 0.79
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.55
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.77
Will both teams score0.79
Average1.04
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 40% of voters

A dominant Germany victory in an open, entertaining game, with both sides finding the net and the match spilling well past the two-goal mark.

Match resultGermany
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Germany wins with a clinical, one-sided performance, goals flowing freely but all in one direction, with the opposition kept off the scoresheet entirely.

Match resultGermany
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

A tight, controlled Germany win, low on goals and locked shut at the back, with Greece unable to register and the game decided by a narrow margin.

Match resultGermany
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
70% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 607 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
140%240 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
215%92 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
315%92 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
412%73 voters
GermanyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
54%23 voters
GreeceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
63%20 voters
GreeceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
73%18 voters
GreeceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
82%15 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
92%13 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
101%8 voters
GreeceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (607 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.15How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 38 · 1%
2 / 3130 · 21%
1 / 3209 · 34%
0 / 3260 · 43%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=607). Average 0.81 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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