All resolved pollsResolved · 26 JUL 2026Upset
Liga MX Sunday: call the two big games
Necaxa 2–1 Monterrey · Pachuca 1–2 Querétaro
The verdict

Necaxa 2–1 Monterrey · Pachuca 1–2 Querétaro

Liga MX Sunday: call the two big games 721 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 32 points above the market's price on Monterrey, and it went the other way.

79%Crowd on Monterrey
47%Market price
+32Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
0 / 2questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Necaxa vs Monterrey:…Surprise
Pachuca beat QuerétaroSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario60%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters721World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Necaxa vs Monterrey: who wins?
Monterrey79%
Necaxa ✓17%
Tie4%
OutcomeNecaxa
Voters721
ReadUpset
2Will Pachuca beat Querétaro?
Yes74%
No ✓26%
OutcomeNo
Voters721
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Necaxa vs Monterrey: who wins: MonterreyUpset
Mkt 47%Crowd 79%+32pp
Result: Necaxa · 1.31
: Deep
Will Pachuca beat Querétaro: YesUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 74%+11pp
Result: No · 1.10
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Necaxa vs Monterrey: who wins1.31
Will Pachuca beat Querétaro1.10
Average1.20
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 60% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Monterrey takes care of business in Necaxa while Pachuca also gets the job done against Querétaro, a clean sweep of both favourites.

Necaxa vs Monterrey: who wins?Monterrey
Will Pachuca beat Querétaro?Yes
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

A minority crowd vision where Monterrey wins their match but Pachuca stumbles, leaving the Sunday card split rather than swept.

Necaxa vs Monterrey: who wins?Monterrey
Will Pachuca beat Querétaro?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

The upset corner of the map: Necaxa turns the form book on its head at home while Pachuca still handles Querétaro on the other side of the card.

Necaxa vs Monterrey: who wins?Necaxa
Will Pachuca beat Querétaro?Yes
92% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 721 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosNecaxa vs Monterrey: who wins?Will Pachuca beat Querétaro?
160%429 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
219%140 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
313%91 voters
NecaxaCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
44%31 voters
NecaxaCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
52%16 voters
TieGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.1×
62%14 voters
TieGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (721 voters · top 6 of 6 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.02How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-2. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
2 / 231 · 4%
1 / 2247 · 34%
0 / 2443 · 61%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=721). Average 0.43 / 2.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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