All resolved pollsResolved · 9 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
PalmeirasWon · Crowd had 75%1
LDU QuitoCrowd had 13%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Palmeiras won 1–0.

Palmeiras vs LDU Quito 513 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

58%Crowd on Yes
33%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters513World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Palmeiras ✓75%
LDU Quito13%
Tie12%
OutcomePalmeiras
Voters513
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓54%
Over 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters513
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes58%
No ✓42%
OutcomeNo
Voters513
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: PalmeirasConsensus
Mkt 78%Crowd 75%-3pp
Result: Palmeiras · 0.09
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 54%+3pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 33%Crowd 58%+25pp
Result: No · 0.67
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.09
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.67
Average0.40
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

A lively Palmeiras victory with both sides finding the net and the game bursting past the goals line. The crowd's most vivid and tightly held collective vision.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 22% of voters · came true

Palmeiras grind out a controlled, low-scoring win, keeping LDU Quito off the scoresheet in a tight, disciplined contest.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 18% of voters

A narrow Palmeiras win where both teams manage a goal each but the match stays contained, finishing with no more than two goals overall.

Match resultPalmeiras
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 513 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
125%128 voters
PalmeirasCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
222%111 voters
PalmeirasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
318%91 voters
PalmeirasCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
411%54 voters
PalmeirasCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
55%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
65%24 voters
LDU QuitoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
74%21 voters
LDU QuitoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.0×
84%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.4×
93%13 voters
LDU QuitoGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
102%10 voters
LDU QuitoGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (513 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3111 · 22%
2 / 3175 · 34%
1 / 3195 · 38%
0 / 332 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=513). Average 1.71 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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