All resolved pollsResolved · 24 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ArsenalWon · Crowd had 81%2
EvertonCrowd had 11%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Arsenal won 2–0.

Arsenal vs Everton 544 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 20 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

65%Crowd on Yes
45%Market price
+20Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario41%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters544World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Arsenal ✓81%
Everton11%
Tie8%
OutcomeArsenal
Voters544
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals61%
Under 2.5 goals ✓39%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters544
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No ✓35%
OutcomeNo
Voters544
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ArsenalConsensus
Mkt 69%Crowd 81%+12pp
Result: Arsenal · 0.05
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 53%Crowd 61%+8pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.74
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 45%Crowd 65%+20pp
Result: No · 0.85
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.05
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.74
Will both teams score0.85
Average0.55
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 41% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Arsenal winning an open, end-to-end contest with goals flowing at both ends, a lively and shared attacking spectacle.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters · came true

A tight, controlled Arsenal victory with Everton shut out, the game decided by a narrow margin and defensive discipline holding firm throughout.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

Arsenal edging it in a low-scoring affair, but Everton still finding a way through, a scrappy contest settled by the slimmest of margins.

Match resultArsenal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
70% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 544 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
141%222 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
217%91 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
313%68 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
411%58 voters
ArsenalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.6×
54%21 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
63%18 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
73%14 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
82%13 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
92%12 voters
EvertonGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
102%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (544 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 391 · 17%
2 / 3147 · 27%
1 / 3274 · 50%
0 / 332 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=544). Average 1.55 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.