All resolved pollsResolved · 22 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
EvertonWon · Crowd had 52%2
Crystal PalaceCrowd had 39%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Everton won 2–0.

Everton vs Crystal Palace: three calls on one match 644 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 12 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Yes
55%Market price
+12Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Everton vs Crystal…Crowd & market agreed
there be three goals or…Market beat the crowd
both sides find the netSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario21%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters644World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Everton vs Crystal Palace: what is the result?
Everton ✓52%
Crystal Palace39%
Tie9%
OutcomeEverton
Voters644
ReadConsensus
2Will there be three goals or more?
Over 2.551%
Under 2.5 ✓49%
OutcomeUnder 2.5
Voters644
ReadMarket
3Do both sides find the net?
Yes67%
No ✓33%
OutcomeNo
Voters644
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Everton vs Crystal Palace: what is the result: EvertonConsensus
Mkt 44%Crowd 52%+8pp
Result: Everton · 0.39
: Deep
Will there be three goals or more: Over 2.5Market
Mkt 49%Crowd 51%+2pp
Result: Under 2.5 · 0.52
: Deep
Do both sides find the net: YesUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 67%+12pp
Result: No · 0.90
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Everton vs Crystal Palace: what is the result0.39
Will there be three goals or more0.52
Do both sides find the net0.90
Average0.60
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 21% of voters

Everton grind out a winning, open affair with both keepers beaten and the goal tally ticking past three in a lively home victory.

Everton vs Crystal Palace: what is the result?Everton
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

Palace turn Goodison over in a free-scoring contest, both sides trading goals in a match that spills well past the two-goal mark.

Everton vs Crystal Palace: what is the result?Crystal Palace
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters · came true

Everton keep it tight and clinical, shutting Palace out entirely in a controlled, low-event win that never really opens up.

Everton vs Crystal Palace: what is the result?Everton
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?No
53% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 644 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosEverton vs Crystal Palace: what is the result?Will there be three goals or more?Do both sides find the net?
121%138 voters
EvertonCalled it!
Over 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
218%117 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
314%89 voters
EvertonCalled it!
Under 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
1.6×
413%81 voters
EvertonCalled it!
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
58%52 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
68%51 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
NoCalled it!
1.3×
75%33 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.8×
85%31 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5Called it!
YesGot it wrong
1.6×
94%28 voters
EvertonCalled it!
Over 2.5Got it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
102%13 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5Got it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (644 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 389 · 14%
2 / 3170 · 26%
1 / 3255 · 40%
0 / 3130 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=644). Average 1.34 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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