The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Mexico2
Ecuador0
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
68%Crowd
43%Market
+25Divergence

+25 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on BTTS Yes, the widest gap on the board, and it diverged from the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap43%68% Yes+25
2Who leads at half-time?32%49% Mexico wins 1st Half+17
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?67%58% No-9
4Who wins this match?62%65% Mexico advances+3
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedMexico 2–0 Ecuador — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario16%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.6kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Mexico advances65%
Ecuador advances35%
OutcomeMexico advances
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes68%
No32%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadMarket
3Who leads at half-time?
Mexico wins 1st Half49%
Tie 1st Half30%
Ecuador wins 1st Half21%
OutcomeMexico wins 1st Half
Voters1.6k
ReadCrowd
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No58%
Yes42%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Mexico advancesConsensus
Mkt 62%Crowd 65%+3pp
Result: Mexico advances · 0.24
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 43%Crowd 68%+25pp
Result: No · 0.92
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Mexico wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 32%Crowd 49%+17pp
Result: Mexico wins 1st Half · 0.39
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoConsensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 58%-9pp
Result: No · 0.35
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.24
Will both teams score in regulation time0.92
Who leads at half-time0.39
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.35
Average0.48
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 16% of voters

Mexico in control from the off, both sides finding the net in an open contest, goals flowing past three as a lively regulation unfolds.

Who wins this match?Mexico advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Mexico ahead at the break and both teams on the scoresheet, but the game stays tight enough that the total stays under three goals.

Who wins this match?Mexico advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Mexico wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters · came true

Mexico dominant and leading at half-time, keeping Ecuador off the board for a clean, low-scoring win with the game settled early.

Who wins this match?Mexico advances
Will both teams score in regulation time?No
Who leads at half-time?Mexico wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
38% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.6k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
116%260 voters
Mexico advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Mexico wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.8×
215%232 voters
Mexico advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Mexico wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
37%116 voters
Mexico advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Mexico wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
47%114 voters
Mexico advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.9×
56%98 voters
Ecuador advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Ecuador wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.1×
66%96 voters
Mexico advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.7×
75%80 voters
Ecuador advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Ecuador wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
2.4×
84%66 voters
Mexico advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
94%63 voters
Ecuador advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.0×
104%62 voters
Mexico advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Mexico wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.6k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4116 · 7%
3 / 4426 · 27%
2 / 4579 · 36%
1 / 4350 · 22%
0 / 4124 · 8%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.6k). Average 2.04 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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