All resolved pollsResolved · 23 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Manchester CityWon · Crowd had 85%2
BournemouthCrowd had 10%1
The verdict

The crowd called it — Manchester City won 2–1.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth: three calls on one match 650 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 19 points above the market's price on Manchester City, and the crowd had it.

85%Crowd on Manchester City
66%Market price
+19Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Manchester City vs…Crowd & market agreed
there be three goals or…Crowd & market agreed
both sides find the netCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario40%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters650World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Manchester City vs Bournemouth: what is the result?
Manchester City ✓85%
Bournemouth10%
Tie5%
OutcomeManchester City
Voters650
ReadConsensus
2Will there be three goals or more?
Over 2.5 ✓66%
Under 2.534%
OutcomeOver 2.5
Voters650
ReadConsensus
3Do both sides find the net?
Yes ✓63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters650
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth: what is the result: Manchester CityConsensus
Mkt 66%Crowd 85%+19pp
Result: Manchester City · 0.04
: Deep
Will there be three goals or more: Over 2.5Consensus
Mkt 67%Crowd 66%-1pp
Result: Over 2.5 · 0.23
: Deep
Do both sides find the net: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 63%+2pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Manchester City vs Bournemouth: what is the result0.04
Will there be three goals or more0.23
Do both sides find the net0.27
Average0.18
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 40% of voters · came true

The crowd's dominant vision: City win in an open, end-to-end game where both sides contribute to a three-plus goal thriller.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth: what is the result?Manchester City
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

A City-controlled demolition job, goals flowing but all in one direction, Bournemouth kept off the scoresheet in a one-sided affair.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth: what is the result?Manchester City
Will there be three goals or more?Over 2.5
Do both sides find the net?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

A tight, scrappy City win where Bournemouth nick a consolation but the game stays locked under three goals total.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth: what is the result?Manchester City
Will there be three goals or more?Under 2.5
Do both sides find the net?Yes
73% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 650 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosManchester City vs Bournemouth: what is the result?Will there be three goals or more?Do both sides find the net?
140%261 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
218%120 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5Called it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
314%93 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
412%80 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
53%19 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
63%17 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.2×
72%15 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
82%12 voters
BournemouthGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
92%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5Called it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
102%10 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5Got it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (650 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.09How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3261 · 40%
2 / 3244 · 38%
1 / 3122 · 19%
0 / 323 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=650). Average 2.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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