The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
DR Congo3
Uzbekistan1
Crowd called 2 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
65%Crowd
56%Market
+9Divergence

+9 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd ran well above market on low-scoring finish, but the goals came anyway.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Biggest gap56%65% No+9
2Who leads at half-time?32%40% DR Congo+8
3Who wins this match?46%52% DR Congo+6
4Will both teams score?49%51% Yes+2
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedCongo DR 3–1 Uzbekistan — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Surprise
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario13%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.2kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
DR Congo52%
Uzbekistan28%
Draw20%
OutcomeDR Congo
Voters1.2k
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
Yes51%
No49%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
No65%
Yes35%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
DR Congo40%
Draw37%
Uzbekistan24%
OutcomeUzbekistan
Voters1.2k
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: DR CongoConsensus
Mkt 46%Crowd 52%+6pp
Result: DR Congo · 0.35
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 49%Crowd 51%+2pp
Result: Yes · 0.48
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored: NoUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 65%+9pp
Result: Yes · 0.85
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: DR CongoUpset
Mkt 32%Crowd 40%+8pp
Result: Uzbekistan · 0.87
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.35
Will both teams score0.48
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.85
Who leads at half-time0.87
Average0.64
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 13% of voters

A tight, controlled DR Congo dominance from the first whistle, shutting Uzbekistan out and leading at the break in a match where goals are scarce.

Who wins this match?DR Congo
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?DR Congo
Scenario 2 · 8% of voters

An open, free-scoring contest with DR Congo firmly in front at half-time, both sides finding the net in a match that delivers plenty of action.

Who wins this match?DR Congo
Will both teams score?Yes
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Yes
Who leads at half-time?DR Congo
Scenario 3 · 7% of voters

A cagey, goalless first half leaves the teams level at the break before DR Congo find a way through in a low-scoring, hard-fought victory.

Who wins this match?DR Congo
Will both teams score?No
Will there be 3 or more goals scored?No
Who leads at half-time?Draw
27% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.2k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
113%162 voters
DR CongoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DR CongoGot it wrong
2.0×
28%92 voters
DR CongoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DR CongoGot it wrong
2.0×
37%82 voters
DR CongoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.1×
46%77 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
2.7×
56%72 voters
DR CongoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DR CongoGot it wrong
0.9×
66%68 voters
DR CongoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DR CongoGot it wrong
1.6×
75%59 voters
UzbekistanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
UzbekistanCalled it!
2.2×
85%59 voters
UzbekistanGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
UzbekistanCalled it!
2.3×
95%57 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
1.9×
105%56 voters
UzbekistanGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
UzbekistanCalled it!
3.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.2k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.0×The most-backed combination drew 2.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-8The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-8; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-15. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 425 · 2%
3 / 4212 · 17%
2 / 4394 · 32%
1 / 4453 · 37%
0 / 4139 · 11%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.2k). Average 1.62 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching