All resolved pollsResolved · 25 SEPT 2026Upset
ItalyCrowd's pick · 51%0
BelgiumWon · Crowd had 31%2
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Belgium won 0–2.

Italy vs Belgium 552 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 11 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

69%Crowd on Yes
58%Market price
+11Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters552World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Italy51%
Belgium ✓31%
Tie18%
OutcomeBelgium
Voters552
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals ✓52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters552
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes69%
No ✓31%
OutcomeNo
Voters552
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: ItalyUpset
Mkt 43%Crowd 51%+8pp
Result: Belgium · 0.77
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 52%+5pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.46
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 69%+11pp
Result: No · 0.95
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.77
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.46
Will both teams score0.95
Average0.73
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Italy controlling an open, end-to-end contest with both sides finding the net in a goal-rich game.

Match resultItaly
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A Belgium upset in a lively, high-scoring affair, with both teams trading goals across a busy, open match.

Match resultBelgium
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Italy grinding out a tight win, both teams scoring but the game staying close and contained, with few chances converted.

Match resultItaly
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
48% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 552 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%131 voters
ItalyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.4×
212%67 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
312%67 voters
ItalyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
412%66 voters
ItalyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
59%49 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.8×
68%44 voters
BelgiumCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
78%42 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.2×
85%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.9×
94%20 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.2×
103%19 voters
ItalyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (552 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 349 · 9%
2 / 3140 · 25%
1 / 3203 · 37%
0 / 3160 · 29%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=552). Average 1.14 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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