All resolved pollsResolved · 5 OCT 2026Crowd beat the market
New Orleans SaintsCrowd had 20%24
Atlanta FalconsWon · Crowd had 80%45
The verdict

The crowd called it — Atlanta Falcons won 24–45.

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons 5 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 35 points above the market's price on Atlanta Falcons, and the crowd had it.

80%Crowd on Atlanta Falcons
45%Market price
+35Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 surprises
winsCrowd beat the market
New Orleans win by 3 or…Surprise
there be more than 48.5…Surprise
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario20%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters5World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Atlanta Falcons ✓80%
New Orleans Saints20%
OutcomeAtlanta Falcons
Voters5
ReadCrowd
2Will New Orleans win by 3 or more?
Yes60%
No ✓40%
OutcomeNo
Voters5
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 48.5 points?
Under 48.560%
Over 48.5 ✓40%
OutcomeOver 48.5
Voters5
ReadUpset
4Who leads at half-time?
Atlanta ✓40%
New Orleans40%
Tie20%
OutcomeAtlanta
Voters5
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Atlanta FalconsCrowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 80%+35pp
Result: Atlanta Falcons · 0.08
: Deep
Will New Orleans win by 3 or more: YesUpset
Mkt 51%Crowd 60%+9pp
Result: No · 0.72
: Deep
Will there be more than 48.5 points: Under 48.5Upset
Mkt 52%Crowd 60%+8pp
Result: Over 48.5 · 0.72
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: AtlantaCrowd
Mkt 40%Crowd 40%0pp
Result: Atlanta · 0.56
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.08
Will New Orleans win by 3 or more0.72
Will there be more than 48.5 points0.72
Who leads at half-time0.56
Average0.52
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 20% of voters

Atlanta takes the win in a controlled, low-scoring affair, with New Orleans holding a narrow half-time lead before the Falcons pull clear without covering a big margin.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will New Orleans win by 3 or more?No
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Under 48.5
Who leads at half-time?New Orleans
Scenario 2 · 20% of voters

A high-scoring game where New Orleans leads at the break and builds a cushion of 3 or more, yet Atlanta storms back to claim the win in a wide-open shootout.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will New Orleans win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Over 48.5
Who leads at half-time?New Orleans
Scenario 3 · 20% of voters

Points flow freely and the sides are level at half-time, before Atlanta pulls away to win while New Orleans still finishes within a 3-point margin of the Falcons.

Who wins?Atlanta Falcons
Will New Orleans win by 3 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 48.5 points?Over 48.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
60% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 5 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will New Orleans win by 3 or more?Will there be more than 48.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
120%1 voter
Atlanta FalconsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Under 48.5Got it wrong
New OrleansGot it wrong
2.6×
220%1 voter
Atlanta FalconsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 48.5Called it!
New OrleansGot it wrong
2.6×
320%1 voter
Atlanta FalconsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 48.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
5.2×
420%1 voter
Atlanta FalconsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Under 48.5Got it wrong
AtlantaCalled it!
1.7×
520%1 voter
New Orleans SaintsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Under 48.5Got it wrong
AtlantaCalled it!
10.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (5 voters · top 5 of 5 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.67How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.6×The most-backed combination drew 2.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-5The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-5; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-13. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 45 · 100%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 40 · 0%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=5). Average 2 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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