VoxPop top scenarios
44% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.1k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Switzerland4
Bosnia-Herzegovina1
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 1.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
68%Crowd
46%Market
+22Divergence
+22 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap46%68% Yes+22
2Who leads at half-time?41%60% Switzerland+19
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?47%55% Yes+8
4Who wins?60%64% Switzerland+4
Crowd & market agreedSwitzerland 4–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario26%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters1.1kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeSwitzerland
Voters1.1k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.1k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.1k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.20
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.40
Will both teams score0.20
Who leads at half-time1.00
Average0.45
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
126%287 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
1.8×
29%103 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
0.8×
39%101 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
1.6×
46%62 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
0.8×
55%61 voters
Bosnia-HerzegovinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Bosnia-HerzegovinaGot it wrong
3.5×
64%45 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
4.0×
74%41 voters
Bosnia-HerzegovinaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
SwitzerlandGot it wrong
0.7×
84%40 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
1.8×
93%31 voters
SwitzerlandCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
0.5×
103%30 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
5.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.1k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.32How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.1k). Average 2.09 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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