VoxPop top scenarios
57% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.3k voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Tunisia0
Japan4
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
73%Crowd
46%Market
+27Divergence
+27 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Japan on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap46%73% Japan+27
2Will both teams score?44%67% Yes+23
3Who wins?65%82% Japan+17
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?47%61% Yes+14
Crowd & market agreedTunisia 0–4 Japan — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
leads at half-timeCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.3kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeJapan
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.3k
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.3k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeJapan
Voters1.3k
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.05
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.30
Will both teams score0.90
Who leads at half-time0.11
Average0.34
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
134%445 voters
JapanCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
JapanCalled it!
1.4×
212%157 voters
JapanCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
JapanCalled it!
0.8×
311%148 voters
JapanCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
JapanCalled it!
1.5×
411%139 voters
JapanCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
JapanCalled it!
0.9×
54%49 voters
JapanCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
0.7×
63%42 voters
JapanCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
2.0×
73%40 voters
TunisiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
TunisiaGot it wrong
6.2×
83%38 voters
JapanCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
TunisiaGot it wrong
0.7×
92%22 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
DrawGot it wrong
5.3×
102%21 voters
DrawGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
DrawGot it wrong
10.3×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.3k voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.23How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.3k). Average 2.49 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
Get the calls worth watching