All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Kansas City ChiefsWon · Crowd had 62%33
Indianapolis ColtsCrowd had 38%30
The verdict

The crowd called it — Kansas City Chiefs won 33–30.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts 574 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 11 points below the market's price on Kansas City Chiefs, and the crowd had it.

62%Crowd on Kansas City Chiefs
73%Market price
-11Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
winsCrowd & market agreed
Kansas City win by 7 or…Surprise
there be more than 47.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters574World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Kansas City Chiefs ✓62%
Indianapolis Colts38%
OutcomeKansas City Chiefs
Voters574
ReadConsensus
2Will Kansas City win by 7 or more?
Kansas City Chiefs -6.557%
Indianapolis Colts +6.5 ✓43%
OutcomeIndianapolis Colts +6.5
Voters574
ReadUpset
3Will there be more than 47.5 points?
Over 47.5 ✓55%
Under 47.545%
OutcomeOver 47.5
Voters574
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
Kansas City Chiefs47%
Indianapolis Colts ✓36%
Tie17%
OutcomeIndianapolis Colts
Voters574
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Kansas City ChiefsConsensus
Mkt 73%Crowd 62%-11pp
Result: Kansas City Chiefs · 0.29
: Deep
Will Kansas City win by 7 or more: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5Upset
Mkt 51%Crowd 57%+6pp
Result: Indianapolis Colts +6.5 · 0.65
: Deep
Will there be more than 47.5 points: Over 47.5Crowd
Mkt 50%Crowd 55%+5pp
Result: Over 47.5 · 0.40
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Kansas City ChiefsUpset
Mkt 58%Crowd 47%-11pp
Result: Indianapolis Colts · 0.66
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.29
Will Kansas City win by 7 or more0.65
Will there be more than 47.5 points0.40
Who leads at half-time0.66
Average0.50
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters

A commanding Chiefs performance: Kansas City controls from the first whistle, leads at the break, covers the spread, and a high-scoring affair pushes the total past the line.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 7 or more?Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Kansas City Chiefs
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

Chiefs in control but the offenses stay quiet. Kansas City leads at half, wins by a week, and a low-scoring grind keeps the total under the number.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 7 or more?Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Kansas City Chiefs
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A full Colts upset: Indianapolis leads at the break, keeps pace in a high-scoring game, and pulls off the outright win while staying within the spread.

Who wins?Indianapolis Colts
Will Kansas City win by 7 or more?Indianapolis Colts +6.5
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Indianapolis Colts
40% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 574 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Kansas City win by 7 or more?Will there be more than 47.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
117%95 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
Kansas City ChiefsGot it wrong
1.8×
213%73 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Kansas City ChiefsGot it wrong
1.7×
311%62 voters
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
Indianapolis Colts +6.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Indianapolis ColtsCalled it!
3.3×
46%36 voters
Indianapolis ColtsGot it wrong
Indianapolis Colts +6.5Called it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Indianapolis ColtsCalled it!
2.4×
55%29 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Indianapolis ColtsCalled it!
0.9×
64%25 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
Indianapolis Colts +6.5Called it!
Under 47.5Got it wrong
Kansas City ChiefsGot it wrong
0.8×
74%22 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5Got it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
TieGot it wrong
1.2×
84%21 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
Indianapolis Colts +6.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Kansas City ChiefsGot it wrong
0.5×
93%20 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5Got it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
1.3×
103%19 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
Indianapolis Colts +6.5Called it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Indianapolis ColtsCalled it!
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (574 voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.26How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.8×The most-backed combination drew 1.8× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-11. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 419 · 3%
3 / 4129 · 22%
2 / 4255 · 44%
1 / 4153 · 27%
0 / 418 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=574). Average 1.96 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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