All resolved pollsAwaiting result
Racing Club
Aldosivi
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
68%Crowd
59%Market
+9Divergence

+9 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd above market on Racing Club win, well below it on Tie.

8m 25sof alpha left before kick-off
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap59%68% Racing Club+9
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario68%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters537World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Racing Club68%
CA Aldosivi19%
Tie13%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters537
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Racing Club
Mkt 59%Crowd 68%+9pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 68% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Racing Club in control at home, with conviction clustering here far above where the market sets the price.

Match resultRacing Club
Scenario 2 · 19% of voters

A minority crowd vision where Aldosivi pull off the upset, drawing slightly more crowd support than the market alone would suggest.

Match resultCA Aldosivi
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

The crowd's least-favoured scenario: a stalemate that the market prices far more generously than this verified crowd is willing to endorse.

Match resultTie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 537 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch result
168%365 voters
Racing ClubPending
1.0×
219%103 voters
CA AldosiviPending
1.0×
313%69 voters
TiePending
1.0×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (537 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.00How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-1The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-1; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-1. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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