All resolved pollsResolved · 10 OCT 2026Upset
Aston VillaCrowd's pick · 64%2
BrentfordCrowd had 22%2
The verdict

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford

Aston Villa vs Brentford 542 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 28 points above the market's price on Aston Villa, and it went the other way.

64%Crowd on Aston Villa
36%Market price
+28Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario31%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters542World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Aston Villa64%
Brentford22%
Tie ✓13%
OutcomeTie
Voters542
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters542
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓69%
No31%
OutcomeYes
Voters542
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Aston VillaUpset
Mkt 36%Crowd 64%+28pp
Result: Tie · 1.21
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 58%Crowd 54%-4pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.42
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 69%+8pp
Result: Yes · 0.19
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.21
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.42
Will both teams score0.19
Average0.61
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 31% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: an Aston Villa victory in an open, end-to-end match where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A disciplined Aston Villa shutout: the crowd here saw a tight, controlled home win with Brentford kept off the scoresheet and few goals overall.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 13% of voters

A narrow Aston Villa win where both teams score but the match stays close and contained, with goals scarce and the home side edging it.

Match resultAston Villa
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
58% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 542 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
131%169 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.3×
214%78 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
313%69 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
410%55 voters
BrentfordGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
56%34 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.5×
66%32 voters
Aston VillaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
75%29 voters
BrentfordGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
85%26 voters
BrentfordGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
94%21 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.8×
103%15 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (542 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 321 · 4%
2 / 3261 · 48%
1 / 3153 · 28%
0 / 3107 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=542). Average 1.36 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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