All resolved pollsResolved · 22 OCT 2026Upset
BesiktasCrowd had 28%2
Crystal PalaceCrowd's pick · 57%2
The verdict

Besiktas 2–2 Crystal Palace

Besiktas vs Crystal Palace 548 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 25 points above the market's price on Crystal Palace, and it went the other way.

57%Crowd on Crystal Palace
32%Market price
+25Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario24%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters548World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Crystal Palace57%
Besiktas28%
Tie ✓15%
OutcomeTie
Voters548
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters548
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓67%
No33%
OutcomeYes
Voters548
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Crystal PalaceUpset
Mkt 32%Crowd 57%+25pp
Result: Tie · 1.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 51%-9pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.48
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 64%Crowd 67%+3pp
Result: Yes · 0.22
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.13
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.48
Will both teams score0.22
Average0.61
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 24% of voters

A Palace victory in an open, attacking game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely past two and a half.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 16% of voters

Palace grind out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Besiktas off the scoresheet in a controlled, disciplined contest.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 14% of voters

Besiktas take the win in a lively, end-to-end affair with both teams contributing goals in a high-tempo match.

Match resultBesiktas
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
54% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 548 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
124%132 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
216%85 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
314%79 voters
BesiktasGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.5×
413%72 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
56%35 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
66%32 voters
BesiktasGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
75%27 voters
BesiktasGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
84%23 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
94%20 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
103%19 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (548 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 319 · 3%
2 / 3253 · 46%
1 / 3164 · 30%
0 / 3112 · 20%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=548). Average 1.33 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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