All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Market beat the crowd
Las Vegas RaidersCrowd's pick · 67%27
Kansas City ChiefsWon · Crowd had 33%30
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 47.5. Kansas City Chiefs won 27–30.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs 6 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 32 points above the market's price on Over 47.5, and it went the other way.

83%Crowd on Over 47.5
51%Market price
+32Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market
winsMarket beat the crowd
Kansas City win by 5 or…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 47.5…Crowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario50%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters6World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
Las Vegas Raiders67%
Kansas City Chiefs ✓33%
OutcomeKansas City Chiefs
Voters6
ReadMarket
2Will Kansas City win by 5 or more?
Yes50%
No ✓50%
OutcomeNo
Voters6
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 47.5 points?
Over 47.5 ✓83%
Under 47.517%
OutcomeOver 47.5
Voters6
ReadConsensus
4Who leads at half-time?
Las Vegas ✓50%
Kansas City33%
Tie17%
OutcomeLas Vegas
Voters6
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: Las Vegas RaidersMarket
Mkt 36%Crowd 67%+31pp
Result: Kansas City Chiefs · 0.90
: Deep
Will Kansas City win by 5 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 50%+1pp
Result: No · 0.50
: Deep
Will there be more than 47.5 points: Over 47.5Consensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 83%+32pp
Result: Over 47.5 · 0.06
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Las VegasCrowd
Mkt 34%Crowd 50%+16pp
Result: Las Vegas · 0.39
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.90
Will Kansas City win by 5 or more0.50
Will there be more than 47.5 points0.06
Who leads at half-time0.39
Average0.46
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 50% of voters

A Raiders upset vision: Las Vegas controls the half, the game stays close enough to deny a Chiefs blowout, but both teams push the scoring well past the total.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will Kansas City win by 5 or more?No
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Las Vegas
Scenario 2 · 33% of voters

A Chiefs dominance picture: Kansas City leads at the break, pulls clear by five or more, and a free-flowing game sends the total comfortably over.

Who wins?Kansas City Chiefs
Will Kansas City win by 5 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Over 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Kansas City
Scenario 3 · 17% of voters

A tight, low-scoring grind: the teams are level at half, yet Kansas City somehow edges a five-plus margin in a defensive contest that keeps the total under.

Who wins?Las Vegas Raiders
Will Kansas City win by 5 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 47.5 points?Under 47.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
100% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 6 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Kansas City win by 5 or more?Will there be more than 47.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
150%3 voters
Las Vegas RaidersGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Over 47.5Called it!
Las VegasCalled it!
3.6×
233%2 voters
Kansas City ChiefsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Over 47.5Called it!
Kansas CityGot it wrong
7.4×
317%1 voter
Las Vegas RaidersGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Under 47.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
17.2×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (6 voters · top 3 of 3 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.81How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call3.6×The most-backed combination drew 3.6× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-7. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 43 · 50%
2 / 42 · 33%
1 / 40 · 0%
0 / 41 · 17%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=6). Average 2.17 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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