All resolved pollsResolved · 4 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
PortugalWon · Crowd had 65%2
NorwayCrowd had 24%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Portugal won 2–1.

Portugal vs Norway 609 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 24 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

77%Crowd on Yes
53%Market price
+24Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario36%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters609World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Portugal ✓65%
Norway24%
Tie11%
OutcomePortugal
Voters609
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓60%
Under 2.5 goals40%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters609
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓77%
No23%
OutcomeYes
Voters609
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: PortugalConsensus
Mkt 49%Crowd 65%+16pp
Result: Portugal · 0.19
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 60%+13pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.32
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 53%Crowd 77%+24pp
Result: Yes · 0.11
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.19
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.32
Will both teams score0.11
Average0.21
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 36% of voters · came true

A Portugal win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely throughout.

Match resultPortugal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 15% of voters

Portugal grind out a narrow victory in a tight, low-scoring affair where Norway still manage a reply.

Match resultPortugal
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Norway turn the form book over in a high-scoring, open match where both teams get on the scoresheet.

Match resultNorway
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
63% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 609 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
136%219 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
215%91 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
312%74 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
49%54 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
56%35 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.8×
65%30 voters
PortugalCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.5×
75%29 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
83%21 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.6×
93%19 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
103%18 voters
NorwayGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (609 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.14How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3219 · 36%
2 / 3214 · 35%
1 / 3140 · 23%
0 / 336 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=609). Average 2.01 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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