All resolved pollsAwaiting result
América
Toluca
Closed
VoxPop gap highlight
Match result
57%Crowd
38%Market
+19Divergence

+19 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd sits far above market on América to win. The widest gap across all three legs.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Match resultBiggest gap38%57% America+19
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?66%51% Over 2.5 goals-15
3Will both teams score?67%65% Yes-2
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
The crowd's read
Top scenario28%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters534World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
America57%
Toluca28%
Tie14%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters534
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals51%
Under 2.5 goals49%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters534
3Will both teams score?
Yes65%
No35%
OutcomeNot yet resolved
Voters534
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: America
Mkt 38%Crowd 57%+19pp
: Thin
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals
Mkt 66%Crowd 51%-15pp
: Thin
Will both teams score: Yes
Mkt 67%Crowd 65%-2pp
: Thin
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 28% of voters

América wins an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely. The crowd's dominant shared vision, clustering well above what independent answers

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

América grinds out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Toluca off the board in a compact, controlled match. A coherent minority vision that holds together more than chance would

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

América wins a close affair where both teams score but goals stay scarce. The crowd sees this combination less often than pure independence predicts, marking it as a notably

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
52% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 534 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
128%147 voters
AmericaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.5×
213%71 voters
AmericaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.4×
311%61 voters
AmericaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.6×
410%54 voters
TolucaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.1×
57%39 voters
TolucaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
0.8×
67%38 voters
TolucaPending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.5×
76%32 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
YesPending
1.3×
85%26 voters
AmericaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.5×
94%22 voters
TiePending
Under 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
1.7×
104%21 voters
TolucaPending
Over 2.5 goalsPending
NoPending
0.8×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (534 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.5×The most-backed combination drew 1.5× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-5. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.