All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026
Washington CommandersCrowd had 0%27
New York GiantsCrowd's pick · 100%27
The verdict

Washington Commanders 27–27 New York Giants

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants 4 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 62 points above the market's price on New York Giants, and it went the other way.

100%Crowd on New York Giants
38%Market price
+62Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called
Washington win by 4 or…Market beat the crowd
there be more than 43.5…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario25%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationHighhow much answers moved together
Voters4World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
New York Giants100%
Washington Commanders0%
Outcomeno_result
Voters4
2Will Washington win by 4 or more?
Yes75%
No ✓25%
OutcomeNo
Voters4
ReadMarket
3Will there be more than 43.5 points?
Over 43.5 ✓50%
Under 43.550%
OutcomeOver 43.5
Voters4
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
New York G50%
Tie25%
Washington ✓25%
OutcomeWashington
Voters4
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins: New York Giants
Mkt 38%Crowd 100%+62pp
Result: no_result · 1.00
: Deep
Will Washington win by 4 or more: YesMarket
Mkt 50%Crowd 75%+25pp
Result: No · 1.13
: Deep
Will there be more than 43.5 points: Over 43.5Crowd
Mkt 45%Crowd 50%+5pp
Result: Over 43.5 · 0.50
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: New York GMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 50%+19pp
Result: Washington · 0.88
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.00
Will Washington win by 4 or more1.13
Will there be more than 43.5 points0.50
Who leads at half-time0.88
Average0.88
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 25% of voters

Giants take the win in a free-scoring game, leading at the break, with Washington never threatening a four-point margin. A clean Giants-controlled performance from start to finish.

Who wins?New York Giants
Will Washington win by 4 or more?No
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?New York G
Scenario 2 · 25% of voters

Giants win despite Washington building a four-plus point lead at some stage. A high-tempo, back-and-forth game with the Giants ahead at half and ultimately prevailing.

Who wins?New York Giants
Will Washington win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Over 43.5
Who leads at half-time?New York G
Scenario 3 · 25% of voters

A tight, low-scoring contest where Washington edges a four-point advantage at some point, the teams are level at the break, but the Giants grind out the final win.

Who wins?New York Giants
Will Washington win by 4 or more?Yes
Will there be more than 43.5 points?Under 43.5
Who leads at half-time?Tie
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 4 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance High).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will Washington win by 4 or more?Will there be more than 43.5 points?Who leads at half-time?
125%1 voter
New York GiantsPending
NoCalled it!
Over 43.5Called it!
New York GGot it wrong
4.0×
225%1 voter
New York GiantsPending
YesGot it wrong
Over 43.5Called it!
New York GGot it wrong
1.3×
325%1 voter
New York GiantsPending
YesGot it wrong
Under 43.5Got it wrong
TieGot it wrong
2.7×
425%1 voter
New York GiantsPending
YesGot it wrong
Under 43.5Got it wrong
WashingtonCalled it!
2.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (4 voters · top 4 of 4 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.56How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call4.0×The most-backed combination drew 4.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-16. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 40 · 0%
3 / 40 · 0%
2 / 41 · 25%
1 / 42 · 50%
0 / 41 · 25%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=4). Average 1 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.