All resolved pollsResolved · 31 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Tottenham Hotspur2
Crystal PalaceCrowd had 26%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Tottenham Hotspur won 2–0.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace 524 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 15 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

71%Crowd on Yes
56%Market price
+15Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 2 surprises
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Surprise
both teams scoreSurprise
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters524World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Tottenham ✓62%
Crystal Palace26%
Tie12%
OutcomeTottenham
Voters524
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals59%
Under 2.5 goals ✓41%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters524
ReadUpset
3Will both teams score?
Yes71%
No ✓29%
OutcomeNo
Voters524
ReadUpset
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: TottenhamConsensus
Mkt 63%Crowd 62%-1pp
Result: Tottenham · 0.23
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsUpset
Mkt 60%Crowd 59%-1pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.70
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesUpset
Mkt 56%Crowd 71%+15pp
Result: No · 1.01
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.23
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.70
Will both teams score1.01
Average0.64
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Tottenham winning an open, end-to-end game with both sides finding the net in a match that delivers on goals.

Match resultTottenham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 12% of voters

A tighter Tottenham win, goals kept low but Crystal Palace still managing to get on the scoresheet in a compact, controlled contest.

Match resultTottenham
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

An upset vision: Crystal Palace turning Spurs over in a lively, open game where both teams contribute to a high-scoring away win.

Match resultCrystal Palace
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
58% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 524 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
134%177 voters
TottenhamCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
212%64 voters
TottenhamCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
312%63 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
411%58 voters
TottenhamCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.5×
56%31 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.9×
65%25 voters
TottenhamCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.4×
75%25 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.6×
85%24 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.3×
94%21 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.8×
103%17 voters
Crystal PalaceGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (524 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.18How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 358 · 11%
2 / 3135 · 26%
1 / 3247 · 47%
0 / 384 · 16%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=524). Average 1.32 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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