The matchResolvedUpset
Switzerland0 (4)
Colombia0 (3)
Crowd called 1 of 4 legs; market called 3.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
71%Crowd
49%Market
+22Divergence

+22 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring, the widest gap on the board. Goalless result ran the other way.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap49%71% Yes+22
2Who leads at half-time?31%43% Colombia wins 1st Half+12
3Who wins this match?62%70% Colombia advances+8
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?61%57% No-4
How it landed:UpsetSwitzerland 0–0 Colombia (Switzerland win 4–3 on penalties) — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchSurprise
there be 3 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams score in…Market beat the crowd
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario15%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.6kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
Colombia advances70%
Switzerland advances30%
OutcomeSwitzerland advances
Voters1.6k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No57%
Yes43%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes71%
No29%
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadMarket
4Who leads at half-time?
Colombia wins 1st Half43%
Tie 1st Half33%
Switzerland wins 1st Half24%
OutcomeTie 1st Half
Voters1.6k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: Colombia advancesUpset
Mkt 62%Crowd 70%+8pp
Result: Switzerland advances · 0.98
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoConsensus
Mkt 61%Crowd 57%-4pp
Result: No · 0.37
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesMarket
Mkt 49%Crowd 71%+22pp
Result: No · 1.01
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: Colombia wins 1st HalfMarket
Mkt 31%Crowd 43%+12pp
Result: Tie 1st Half · 0.69
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.98
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.37
Will both teams score in regulation time1.01
Who leads at half-time0.69
Average0.76
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 15% of voters

A controlled Colombia performance: taking the lead before the break, keeping the scoring tight but letting both sides find the net in a compact, purposeful win.

Who wins this match?Colombia advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Colombia wins 1st Half
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

An open, free-scoring contest with Colombia firmly in front at half-time and both teams contributing goals across a lively regulation period.

Who wins this match?Colombia advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Colombia wins 1st Half
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

A cagey first half ending level, before Colombia eventually pulled clear in a low-scoring but two-sided affair where neither defence kept a clean sheet.

Who wins this match?Colombia advances
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Who leads at half-time?Tie 1st Half
38% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.6k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?Who leads at half-time?
115%248 voters
Colombia advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Colombia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
214%232 voters
Colombia advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Colombia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.6×
38%128 voters
Colombia advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.9×
47%120 voters
Colombia advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
2.0×
57%115 voters
Switzerland advancesCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Switzerland wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
3.3×
66%104 voters
Colombia advancesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoCalled it!
Colombia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.3×
76%90 voters
Colombia advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
0.8×
85%85 voters
Switzerland advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Switzerland wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
1.8×
94%61 voters
Switzerland advancesCalled it!
NoCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfCalled it!
1.0×
103%52 voters
Colombia advancesGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
Colombia wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.6k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.24How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-8. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 452 · 3%
3 / 4237 · 15%
2 / 4454 · 28%
1 / 4576 · 36%
0 / 4283 · 18%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.6k). Average 1.5 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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