The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
Mexico2
England3
Crowd called 3 of 4 legs — ahead of the market on 2.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score in regulation time?
75%Crowd
47%Market
+28Divergence

+28 ppts divergence with the market.

Crowd well above market on both teams scoring. That read aligned with the outcome.

QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score in regulation time?Biggest gap47%75% Yes+28
2Who leads at half-time?28%42% England wins 1st Half+14
3Who wins this match?52%64% England advances+12
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?63%52% No-11
How it landed:Crowd & market agreedMexico 2–3 England — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
wins this matchCrowd & market agreed
leads at half-timeCrowd beat the market
there be 3 or more…Surprise
both teams score in…Crowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.8kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins this match?
England advances64%
Mexico advances36%
OutcomeEngland advances
Voters1.8k
ReadConsensus
2Who leads at half-time?
England wins 1st Half42%
Tie 1st Half30%
Mexico wins 1st Half29%
OutcomeEngland wins 1st Half
Voters1.8k
ReadCrowd
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?
No52%
Yes48%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.8k
ReadUpset
4Will both teams score in regulation time?
Yes75%
No25%
OutcomeYes
Voters1.8k
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Who wins this match: England advancesConsensus
Mkt 52%Crowd 64%+12pp
Result: England advances · 0.26
: Deep
Who leads at half-time: England wins 1st HalfCrowd
Mkt 28%Crowd 42%+14pp
Result: England wins 1st Half · 0.51
: Deep
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time: NoUpset
Mkt 63%Crowd 52%-11pp
Result: Yes · 0.54
: Deep
Will both teams score in regulation time: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 75%+28pp
Result: Yes · 0.13
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins this match0.26
Who leads at half-time0.51
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time0.54
Will both teams score in regulation time0.13
Average0.36
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 17% of voters · came true

England in control from the off, leading at the break in an open, end-to-end game where both sides find the net and goals flow freely.

Who wins this match?England advances
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 2 · 13% of voters

England ahead at half-time and through to the next round, but the match stays tight and contained. Both teams score, yet the goals stay scarce.

Who wins this match?England advances
Who leads at half-time?England wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?No
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
Scenario 3 · 8% of voters

Mexico seize the initiative early, lead at the break, and the match opens up into a high-scoring affair with both sides on the scoresheet.

Who wins this match?Mexico advances
Who leads at half-time?Mexico wins 1st Half
Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Yes
Will both teams score in regulation time?Yes
38% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.8k voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins this match?Who leads at half-time?Will there be 3 or more goals scored in regulation time?Will both teams score in regulation time?
117%307 voters
England advancesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.7×
213%242 voters
England advancesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
38%141 voters
Mexico advancesGot it wrong
Mexico wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
2.1×
48%141 voters
Mexico advancesGot it wrong
Mexico wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.9×
57%124 voters
England advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
66%112 voters
England advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
74%82 voters
England advancesCalled it!
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.8×
84%78 voters
England advancesCalled it!
England wins 1st HalfCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.2×
94%73 voters
Mexico advancesGot it wrong
Tie 1st HalfGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.9×
103%63 voters
England advancesCalled it!
Mexico wins 1st HalfGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.8k voters · top 10 of 24 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.25How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.7×The most-backed combination drew 1.7× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-10. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
4 / 4307 · 17%
3 / 4503 · 27%
2 / 4541 · 30%
1 / 4365 · 20%
0 / 4114 · 6%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.8k). Average 2.29 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
VoxPop
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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