All resolved pollsResolved · 19 OCT 2026Upset
CorinthiansCrowd had 68%1
Vitória1
The verdict

Corinthians 1–1 Vitória

Corinthians vs Vitória 557 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

63%Crowd on Yes
46%Market price
+17Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
1 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Market beat the crowd
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario30%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters557World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Corinthians68%
Vitoria21%
Tie ✓10%
OutcomeTie
Voters557
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals53%
Under 2.5 goals ✓47%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters557
ReadMarket
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓63%
No37%
OutcomeYes
Voters557
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: CorinthiansUpset
Mkt 55%Crowd 68%+13pp
Result: Tie · 1.32
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsMarket
Mkt 46%Crowd 53%+7pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.56
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 46%Crowd 63%+17pp
Result: Yes · 0.27
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.32
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.56
Will both teams score0.27
Average0.72
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 30% of voters

The crowd's dominant vision: Corinthians win in an open, end-to-end contest where both sides find the net and goals flow freely past 2.5.

Match resultCorinthians
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 17% of voters

A tight, controlled Corinthians victory where only one side scores and the game stays locked below three goals, clean and compact.

Match resultCorinthians
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 12% of voters

Corinthians win a low-scoring but two-way affair, both teams getting on the scoresheet inside a game that stays under three goals total.

Match resultCorinthians
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
59% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 557 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
130%169 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
217%95 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
312%65 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.6×
49%51 voters
CorinthiansGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
58%43 voters
VitoriaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.1×
65%30 voters
VitoriaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
75%29 voters
VitoriaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
85%28 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.7×
93%17 voters
VitoriaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
103%14 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (557 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.17How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.3×The most-backed combination drew 1.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 328 · 5%
2 / 3123 · 22%
1 / 3338 · 61%
0 / 368 · 12%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=557). Average 1.2 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.