All resolved pollsResolved · 17 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Manchester CityWon · Crowd had 86%3
Ipswich TownCrowd had 7%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Manchester City won 3–2.

Manchester City vs Ipswich Town 543 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 6 points above the market's price on Manchester City, and the crowd had it.

86%Crowd on Manchester City
80%Market price
+6Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 3 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario39%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters543World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester City ✓86%
Ipswich Town7%
Tie7%
OutcomeManchester City
Voters543
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓74%
Under 2.5 goals26%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters543
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓57%
No43%
OutcomeYes
Voters543
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester CityConsensus
Mkt 80%Crowd 86%+6pp
Result: Manchester City · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 72%Crowd 74%+2pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.14
: Thin
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 51%Crowd 57%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.37
: Thin
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.03
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.14
Will both teams score0.37
Average0.18
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 39% of voters · came true

A free-scoring Manchester City win with Ipswich finding the net too. The crowd's dominant vision: goals at both ends, City on top.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 27% of voters

Manchester City running up a tally of goals while keeping Ipswich off the scoresheet. A busy match, but one-sided in the scoring column.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

A tight, controlled Manchester City win. Fewer goals, Ipswich shut out, City grinding through with little room for drama.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
77% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 543 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
139%212 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
227%148 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
311%60 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.1×
49%47 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
53%15 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
63%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
72%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
2.0×
82%9 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
2.1×
91%8 voters
Ipswich TownGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
101%7 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.6×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (543 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.07How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3212 · 39%
2 / 3225 · 41%
1 / 391 · 17%
0 / 315 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=543). Average 2.17 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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