All resolved pollsResolved · 11 OCT 2026Upset
América1
MonterreyCrowd had 34%1
The verdict

América 1–1 Monterrey

América vs Monterrey 548 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 8 points above the market's price on Under 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

50%Crowd on Under 2.5 goals
42%Market price
+8Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
Match resultSurprise
there be more than 2.5…Crowd beat the market
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
The crowd's read
Top scenario23%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters548World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
America50%
Monterrey34%
Tie ✓16%
OutcomeTie
Voters548
ReadUpset
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals50%
Under 2.5 goals ✓50%
OutcomeUnder 2.5 goals
Voters548
ReadCrowd
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓66%
No34%
OutcomeYes
Voters548
ReadConsensus
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: AmericaUpset
Mkt 52%Crowd 50%-2pp
Result: Tie · 1.07
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goalsCrowd
Mkt 42%Crowd 50%+8pp
Result: Under 2.5 goals · 0.50
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 66%+6pp
Result: Yes · 0.23
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result1.07
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.50
Will both teams score0.23
Average0.60
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 23% of voters

The crowd's most-backed vision: America controlling an open, attacking game where both sides find the net in a high-tempo, multi-goal contest.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 14% of voters

A Monterrey upset in a free-scoring match, both teams contributing goals in a lively, end-to-end affair that goes beyond the 2.5-goal mark.

Match resultMonterrey
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 3 · 11% of voters

America grinding out a tight, low-scoring win, keeping Monterrey off the scoresheet in a disciplined, defensively compact encounter.

Match resultAmerica
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
49% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 548 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
123%128 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
214%77 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.3×
311%63 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.4×
411%61 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
510%53 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
67%40 voters
MonterreyGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
76%33 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.1×
85%25 voters
TieCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.7×
94%20 voters
TieCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.7×
104%20 voters
AmericaGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
0.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (548 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.19How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.4×The most-backed combination drew 1.4× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-6. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 333 · 6%
2 / 3146 · 27%
1 / 3332 · 61%
0 / 337 · 7%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=548). Average 1.32 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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