All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Manchester CityWon · Crowd had 85%5
SunderlandCrowd had 8%3
The verdict

The crowd backed Yes. Manchester City won 5–3.

Manchester City vs Sunderland 597 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 14 points above the market's price on Yes, and it went the other way.

61%Crowd on Yes
47%Market price
+14Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
The crowd's read
Top scenario42%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters597World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester City ✓85%
Sunderland8%
Tie7%
OutcomeManchester City
Voters597
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓69%
Under 2.5 goals31%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters597
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes ✓61%
No39%
OutcomeYes
Voters597
ReadCrowd
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester CityConsensus
Mkt 75%Crowd 85%+10pp
Result: Manchester City · 0.03
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 60%Crowd 69%+9pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.19
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesCrowd
Mkt 47%Crowd 61%+14pp
Result: Yes · 0.30
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.03
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.19
Will both teams score0.30
Average0.18
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 42% of voters · came true

A free-scoring City win with goals at both ends. The crowd's dominant vision, clustering tighter than independent answers alone would predict.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 18% of voters

City running up a high-scoring tally while keeping Sunderland off the board. A one-sided goal-fest with the net bulging only at one end.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 15% of voters

A controlled, low-key City win with the game staying tight and Sunderland unable to find a way through. Compact, efficient, and quiet.

Match resultManchester City
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
75% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 597 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
142%251 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
1.2×
218%108 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.8×
315%90 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.5×
410%60 voters
Manchester CityCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
0.6×
53%15 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.9×
63%15 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesCalled it!
0.7×
72%13 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
1.4×
82%11 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
1.9×
92%11 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
1.0×
102%9 voters
SunderlandGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
0.7×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (597 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.13How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.2×The most-backed combination drew 1.2× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-2The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-2; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3251 · 42%
2 / 3198 · 33%
1 / 3132 · 22%
0 / 316 · 3%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=597). Average 2.15 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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