VoxPop top scenarios
36% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 708 voters
The matchResolvedCrowd & market agreed
South Korea2
Czech Republic1
Crowd and market both called 3 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Will both teams score?
78%Crowd
51%Market
+27Divergence
+27 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Yes on will both teams score.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Will both teams score?Biggest gap51%78% Yes+27
2Who leads at half-time?28%41% Korea Republic+13
3Who wins?36%45% Korea Republic+9
4Will there be 3 or more goals scored?42%51% Yes+9
Crowd & market agreedSouth Korea 2–1 Czechia — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
3 / 4questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
winsCrowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd & market agreed
there be 3 or more…Crowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario17%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationModeratehow much answers moved together
Voters708World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeKorea Republic
Voters708
ReadConsensus
2Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters708
ReadConsensus
3Will there be 3 or more goals scored?
OutcomeYes
Voters708
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeDraw
Voters708
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins0.48
Will both teams score0.10
Will there be 3 or more goals scored0.48
Who leads at half-time0.85
Average0.48
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Moderate).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will both teams score?Will there be 3 or more goals scored?Who leads at half-time?
117%122 voters
Korea RepublicCalled it!
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Korea RepublicGot it wrong
2.3×
210%68 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
CzechiaGot it wrong
1.8×
39%65 voters
Korea RepublicCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
Korea RepublicGot it wrong
1.3×
49%62 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
CzechiaGot it wrong
1.7×
54%29 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
DrawCalled it!
1.1×
64%25 voters
DrawGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
2.2×
73%24 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
CzechiaGot it wrong
2.4×
83%22 voters
CzechiaGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
YesCalled it!
Korea RepublicGot it wrong
0.5×
93%22 voters
Korea RepublicCalled it!
YesCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
0.7×
103%21 voters
Korea RepublicCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
DrawCalled it!
2.4×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (708 voters · top 10 of 36 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.29How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call2.3×The most-backed combination drew 2.3× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-6The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-6; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-14. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=708). Average 1.99 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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