All resolved pollsResolved · 10 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Manchester UnitedWon · Crowd had 89%4
Sabah Baku0
The verdict

The crowd backed Over 2.5 goals. Manchester United won 4–0.

Manchester United vs Sabah 584 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 10 points below the market's price on Over 2.5 goals, and it went the other way.

67%Crowd on Over 2.5 goals
77%Market price
-10Points of divergence

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 3questions the crowd called · 2 alongside the market
Match resultCrowd & market agreed
there be more than 2.5…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario34%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters584World ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Match result
Manchester United ✓89%
Sabah Masazir6%
Tie4%
OutcomeManchester United
Voters584
ReadConsensus
2Will there be more than 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals ✓67%
Under 2.5 goals33%
OutcomeOver 2.5 goals
Voters584
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
Yes52%
No ✓48%
OutcomeNo
Voters584
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg

How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.

Match result: Manchester UnitedConsensus
Mkt 87%Crowd 89%+2pp
Result: Manchester United · 0.02
: Deep
Will there be more than 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goalsConsensus
Mkt 77%Crowd 67%-10pp
Result: Over 2.5 goals · 0.22
: Deep
Will both teams score: YesMarket
Mkt 47%Crowd 52%+5pp
Result: No · 0.54
: Deep
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Match result0.02
Will there be more than 2.5 goals0.22
Will both teams score0.54
Average0.26
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
VoxPop top scenarios
Scenario 1 · 34% of voters

A free-scoring United win with both sides finding the net. The crowd's most vivid shared vision, a high-tempo, open contest with goals spread across both ends.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?Yes
Scenario 2 · 29% of voters · came true

United dominant and prolific, but keeping a clean sheet. A one-sided, high-volume win with all the goals flowing in one direction.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Over 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
Scenario 3 · 16% of voters

A controlled, low-key United victory. Compact, efficient, with Sabah shut out and the game settled without a flurry of goals.

Match resultManchester United
Will there be more than 2.5 goals?Under 2.5 goals
Will both teams score?No
78% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 584 voters
The crowd's map · top scenarios

★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).

The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosMatch resultWill there be more than 2.5 goals?Will both teams score?
134%197 voters
Manchester UnitedCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
229%168 voters
Manchester UnitedCalled it!
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
NoCalled it!
1.0×
316%91 voters
Manchester UnitedCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.1×
411%66 voters
Manchester UnitedCalled it!
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
0.7×
52%14 voters
Sabah MasazirGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
1.1×
62%12 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
3.0×
72%9 voters
Sabah MasazirGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
1.6×
82%9 voters
Sabah MasazirGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
1.5×
91%8 voters
TieGot it wrong
Under 2.5 goalsGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
2.2×
101%4 voters
TieGot it wrong
Over 2.5 goalsCalled it!
YesGot it wrong
0.5×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (584 voters · top 10 of 12 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.07How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.1×The most-backed combination drew 1.1× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-3The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-3; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-3. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
3 / 3168 · 29%
2 / 3294 · 50%
1 / 3101 · 17%
0 / 321 · 4%
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=584). Average 2.04 / 3.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
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