VoxPop top scenarios
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.6k voters
The matchResolvedUpset
Brazil1
Morocco1
Crowd and market both called 2 of 4 legs.
VoxPop gap highlight
Who leads at half-time?
77%Crowd
42%Market
+35Divergence
+35 ppts divergence with the market.
The crowd called Brazil on who leads at half-time.
QuestionMarketCrowdGap
1Who leads at half-time?Biggest gap42%77% Brazil+35
2Who wins?58%87% Brazil+29
3Will both teams score?48%73% Yes+25
4Will there be 4 or more goals scored?75%54% No-21
UpsetBrazil 1–1 Morocco — full per-leg reconciliation below.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
there be 4 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.6kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.6k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 4 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.6k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeTie
Voters1.6k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.67
Will there be 4 or more goals scored0.42
Will both teams score0.15
Who leads at half-time1.36
Average0.90
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 4 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
127%418 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
BrazilGot it wrong
1.0×
224%378 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
BrazilGot it wrong
1.1×
312%191 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
BrazilGot it wrong
1.3×
49%140 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
BrazilGot it wrong
1.1×
55%75 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TieCalled it!
1.1×
63%43 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
MoroccoGot it wrong
0.9×
72%35 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
TieCalled it!
0.6×
82%28 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
MoroccoGot it wrong
0.5×
92%27 voters
MoroccoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
MoroccoGot it wrong
6.5×
102%24 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TieCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.6k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.6k). Average 1.46 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.
Our insights are a read-only record of what our World ID holders expressed in our polls, not VoxPop predictions. The crowd's read is not to be considered financial advice.
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