VoxPop top scenarios
64% of voters backed the top 3 scenarios · 1.6k voters
BrazilCrowd's pick · 87%1
MoroccoCrowd had 8%1
The verdict
Brazil 1–1 Morocco
Brazil vs Morocco 1.6k verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 35 points above the market's price on Brazil, and it went the other way.
77%Crowd on Brazil
42%Market price
+35Points of divergence
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation; the crowd's read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.
Detailed match data
How the crowd called it
2 / 4questions the crowd called · 1 alongside the market · 1 surprise
winsSurprise
there be 4 or more…Crowd & market agreed
both teams scoreCrowd beat the market
leads at half-timeMarket beat the crowd
The crowd's read
Top scenario27%share in the most-picked scenario
Cross-market correlationLowhow much answers moved together
Voters1.6kWorld ID voters
How the crowd voted per leg
1Who wins?
OutcomeDraw
Voters1.6k
ReadUpset
2Will there be 4 or more goals scored?
OutcomeNo
Voters1.6k
ReadConsensus
3Will both teams score?
OutcomeYes
Voters1.6k
ReadCrowd
4Who leads at half-time?
OutcomeTie
Voters1.6k
ReadMarket
Crowd vs market · every leg
How the crowd's read sat against the betting price on every question. The market's a yardstick, not a call: Deep = liquid enough to trust, Thin = directional only.
The crowd's calibration · Brier
The crowd's calibration, question by question
Who wins1.67
Will there be 4 or more goals scored0.42
Will both teams score0.15
Who leads at half-time1.36
Average0.90
Brier scores how well-calibrated the crowd was on each question: 0 is a perfect, confident, correct call · ~0.25 is a coin-flip · higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened. Computed from the crowd's own vote split vs what actually happened — no betting market involved.
The crowd's map · top scenarios
★ = the cell that actually happened; ♥ = the crowd's most-backed. × is how much more the crowd clustered on a combination than answering each question independently predicts — a cross-leg correlation a per-leg market can't price (overall TV-distance Low).
The crowd's top scenariosJoint distribution
Crowd scenariosWho wins?Will there be 4 or more goals scored?Will both teams score?Who leads at half-time?
127%418 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
BrazilGot it wrong
1.0×
224%378 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
BrazilGot it wrong
1.1×
312%191 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
BrazilGot it wrong
1.3×
49%140 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
NoGot it wrong
BrazilGot it wrong
1.1×
55%75 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
TieCalled it!
1.1×
63%43 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
MoroccoGot it wrong
0.9×
72%35 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
TieCalled it!
0.6×
82%28 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
YesCalled it!
MoroccoGot it wrong
0.5×
92%27 voters
MoroccoGot it wrong
YesGot it wrong
YesCalled it!
MoroccoGot it wrong
6.5×
102%24 voters
BrazilGot it wrong
NoCalled it!
NoGot it wrong
TieCalled it!
0.9×
Each row is one full scenario the crowd could pick, most-backed first (1.6k voters · top 10 of 35 combinations). vs ind. above 1× means the crowd clustered on that exact combination together.
0.12How far the crowd's whole picture sat from treating each question on its own. 0 = they answered independently; closer to 1 = the questions moved together.
Clustering on the top call1.0×The most-backed combination drew 1.0× as many voters as separate answers would predict — the crowd piled onto it together.
Rarity of the top call1-in-4The crowd put its top scenario at about 1-in-4; answering each question separately implies ~1-in-4. Shorter odds = more crowd conviction.
How right was the crowd · alignment
Legs each complete ballot got right (n=1.6k). Average 1.46 / 4.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes — never mid-vote. "Crowd called it" means the crowd's top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.